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External Trade Diversion, Exclusion Incentives and the Nature of Preferential Trade Agreements

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  • Paul Missios

    (Ryerson University)

  • Kamal Saggi

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Halis Murat Yildiz

    (Ryerson University)

Abstract

In a game of endogenous trade agreements between three countries, we show that while the pursuit of customs unions (CUs) prevents global free trade from emerging as a coalition-proof Nash equilibrium, the pursuit of free trade agreements (FTAs) does not. This result reflects the relatively flexible nature of FTAs: whereas each FTA member can independently undertake further trade liberalization with respect to the non-member, CU members must do so as a group due to their common external tariff. By diverting members' exports away from the non-member, both types of trade agreements induce the non-member to voluntarily lower its import tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Missios & Kamal Saggi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2015. "External Trade Diversion, Exclusion Incentives and the Nature of Preferential Trade Agreements," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 15-00011, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-15-00012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. James Lake, 2017. "Free Trade Agreements As Dynamic Farsighted Networks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 31-50, January.
    2. Russ, Katheryn N. & Swenson, Deborah L., 2019. "Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-31.
    3. Hinnerk Gnutzmann & Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, 2019. "The silent success of customs unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 178-224, February.
    4. Lake, James & Nken, Moïse & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2020. "Tariff bindings and the dynamic formation of Preferential Trade Agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Moise Nken & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2017. "Implications of multilateral tariff bindings on the formation of preferential trade agreements and quest for global free trade," Working Papers 068, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jose Jaime Baena-Rojas & Susana Herrero-Olarte, 2020. "From Preferential Trade Arrangements to Free Trade Agreements: One of the Downturns of Cooperation in International Relations?," Social Sciences, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Lake, James & Yildiz, Halis M., 2016. "On the different geographic characteristics of Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 213-233.
    8. James Lake, 2019. "Dynamic formation of preferential trade agreements: The role of flexibility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 132-177, February.
    9. Elie Appelbaum & Mark Melatos, 2018. "Are Customs Unions Really So Scarce?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 391-404, December.
    10. Paul Missios & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2017. "Do South–South preferential trade agreements undermine the prospects for multilateral free trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 111-161, February.
    11. Kamal Saggi & Woan Foong Wong & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2017. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Rules of the Multilateral Trading System," Working Papers 067, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    12. Gabriel Felbermayr & Feodora Teti & Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2018. "On the Profitability of Trade Deflection and the Need for Rules of Origin," CESifo Working Paper Series 6929, CESifo.
    13. Kamal Saggi & Woan Foong Wong & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2020. "The Role of Non-Discrimination in a World of Discriminatory Preferential Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 8139, CESifo.
    14. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Teti, Feodora & Yalcin, Erdal, 2019. "Rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Saggi, Kamal & Wong, Woan Foong & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2019. "Should the WTO require free trade agreements to eliminate internal tariffs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 316-330.
    16. Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2020. "The role of the most favored nation principle of the GATT/WTO in the New Trade model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 760-798, August.
    17. James Lake, 2016. "Why don't more countries form Customs Unions instead of Free Trade Agreements? The role of flexibility," Departmental Working Papers 1601, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    18. Hinnerk Gnutzmann & Arevik Gnutzmann‐Mkrtchyan, 2019. "The silent success of customs unions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 178-224, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreement; Customs Union; Hub and Spoke Agreements; Free Trade; Optimal Tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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