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The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

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  • Simone Cigna
  • Philipp Meinen
  • Patrick Schulte
  • Nils Steinhoff

Abstract

We provide evidence on the existence of short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product‐level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference‐in‐differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Cigna & Philipp Meinen & Patrick Schulte & Nils Steinhoff, 2022. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 162-173, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:60:y:2022:i:1:p:162-173
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13043
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    Cited by:

    1. Minkyu Son, 2022. "The global propagation of the US–China trade war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 3121-3157, December.
    2. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Ivan, Deseatnicov, 2022. "The impact of the U.S.-China conflict and the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports," IDE Discussion Papers 852, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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