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Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Rita Cappariello

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Sebastián Franco-Bedoya

    (The World Bank)

  • Vanessa Gunnella

    (European Central Bank)

  • Gianmarco Ottaviano

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of ’global value chains’ (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes due account of the observed international input-output relations. However, the existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level bilateral final and intermediate trade shares are identical, and that the allocation of imported inputs across sectors is the same as the allocation of domestic inputs. This means applying two proportionality assumptions, one at the border to split final goods and inputs, and another behind the border to allocate inputs across industries. In practice, neither assumption holds in the available input-output data sets. To overcome this limitation in the existing models, we consider a richer input-output structure across countries and sectors that we can match with the actual structure reported in the input-output tables. This allows us to investigate the relationship between the effects of changes in trade policies and GVCs. When we apply the enhanced quantitative general equilibrium model to the assessment of the effects of Brexit, we find trade and welfare losses that are substantially larger than those obtained by previous models. This is due to the close integration of UK-EU production networks and implies that denser GVCs amplify the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rita Cappariello & Sebastián Franco-Bedoya & Vanessa Gunnella & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2020. "Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1263, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1263_20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    3. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & King, Michael & McCarthy, Yvonne & Palmer, Christopher, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.
    5. Cigna, Simone & Gunnella, Vanessa & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    6. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    9. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    10. L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pilar & Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo & Geeroms, Hans & de Almeida, Ana M. & Bisciari, Patrick & Byrne, Stephen & Campos, Rodolfo & Conefrey, Thomas & Cappariello, Rita & Damjanovi, 2020. "A review of economic analyses on the potential impact of Brexit," Occasional Paper Series 249, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade model; supply chains; Trade policy shocks; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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