IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/114282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of non-tariff barriers on trade and welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Dhingra, Swati
  • Freeman, Rebecca
  • Huang, Hanwei

Abstract

Deep trade agreements are widespread and have taken the world beyond tariff liberalization in goods trade. As the importance of global supply chains and the services sector increased across the world, shallow tariff reductions gave way to deeper commitments that address non-tariff barriers and behind the border barriers to trade. This paper shows that deep trade agreement commitments increase trade by 25% for trade in goods and by even more for trade in services. Taking reduced form estimates to a quantitative model enables general equilibrium analysis of the trade and welfare impacts of deep trade agreements. We find that China, India, and the Eastern European bloc have benefited the most from trade agreements since the Uruguay Round. While a large share of the gains to Eastern Europe come from deep commitments during its accession to the EU, gains for China and India come largely from tariff reductions. Applying the framework to ex-ante analysis of the UK’s departure from the deepest trade agreement in the world suggests that the potential benefits the UK may gain, post-Brexit, from future deep agreements with the EU and selected nonEU trade partners would not offset its losses from leaving the EU. Overall, deep trade agreements have contributed over 40% to the welfare gains from trade globally and even more so for advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhingra, Swati & Freeman, Rebecca & Huang, Hanwei, 2021. "The impact of non-tariff barriers on trade and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114282, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:114282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/114282/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. David Comerford & José V Rodríguez Mora & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The gains from economic integration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 201-266.
    5. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2014. "Establishment heterogeneity, exporter dynamics, and the effects of trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 207-223.
    6. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    7. Aaditya Mattoo & Alen Mulabdic & Michele Ruta, 2022. "Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 1598-1637, August.
    8. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    9. Holger Breinlich & Anson Soderbery & Greg C. Wright, 2018. "From Selling Goods to Selling Services: Firm Responses to Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 79-108, November.
    10. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889, December.
    11. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    12. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    13. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    14. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    15. Gianluca Orefice & Nadia Rocha, 2014. "Deep Integration and Production Networks: An Empirical Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 106-136, January.
    16. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    17. Machin, Stephen & Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati, 2019. "Trade and Worker Deskilling," CEPR Discussion Papers 13768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Edith Laget & Alberto Osnago & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Deep Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 379-410, September.
    20. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Feng, Michael, 2014. "Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 339-350.
    21. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    22. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
    23. Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolàs & Jack Rossbach, 2017. "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 295-325, September.
    24. Mulabdic,Alen & Osnago,Alberto & Ruta,Michele, 2017. "Deep integration and UK-EU trade relations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7947, The World Bank.
    25. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    27. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    28. Christoph E. Boehm & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2023. "The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 861-905, April.
    29. Giovanni Maggi & Robert W. Staiger, 2011. "The Role of Dispute Settlement Procedures in International Trade Agreements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 475-515.
    30. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    31. Alessandria,George & Khan,Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian,Armen & Ruhl,KimJ. & Steinberg,Joseph B., 2021. "Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9741, The World Bank.
    32. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Amit Kumar Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1727-1767.
    33. Paola Conconi & Manuel García-Santana & Laura Puccio & Roberto Venturini, 2018. "From Final Goods to Inputs: The Protectionist Effect of Rules of Origin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2335-2365, August.
    34. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    35. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6o8sdn6fuv9m1r3rt5verlv4b7 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    38. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    39. William R. Cline, 2004. "Trade Policy and Global Poverty," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 379, October.
    40. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    41. Ingo Borchert & Batshur Gootiiz & Arti Grover Goswami & Aaditya Mattoo, 2017. "Services Trade Protection and Economic Isolation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 632-652, March.
    42. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    43. Hofmann,Claudia & Osnago,Alberto & Ruta,Michele, 2017. "Horizontal depth : a new database on the content of preferential trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7981, The World Bank.
    44. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    45. Richard Baldwin, 2008. "Big-Think Regionalism: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 14056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Wei Tian & Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing trade, export intensity, and input trade liberalization: evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 444-464, July.
    47. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
    48. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    49. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    50. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    51. Thomas Zylkin, 2019. "Verifying the Existence of Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Generalized Linear Models," 2019 Stata Conference 47, Stata Users Group.
    52. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2020. "Gravity-model Estimation with Time-interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    53. Scott L Baier & Jeffrey H Bergstrand & Matthew W Clance, 2017. "Heterogeneous economic integration agreements' effects, gravity, and welfare," Discussion Papers 2017-05, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    54. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    55. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimar~aes & Thomas Zylkin, 2019. "Verifying the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for generalized linear models," Papers 1903.01633, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    56. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Miroudot & Davide Rigo, 2022. "Multinational production and investment provisions in preferential trade agreements [Intra-industry foreign direct investment]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1275-1308.
    2. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    3. Bakker, Jan David & Datta, Nikhil & Davies, Richard & De Lyon, Josh, 2023. "Brexit and consumer food prices," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1461, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Bakker, Jan David & Datta, Nikhil & Davies, Richard & De Lyon, Josh, 2023. "Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 663, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Lisandra Flach, 2021. "Recent Challenges for Global Cooperation and the Future of WTO," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(02), pages 08-11, March.
    6. Bakker, Jan & Datta, Nikhil & Davies, Richard & De Lyon, Joshua, 2022. "Non-tariff barriers and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118040, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Jan David Bakker & Nikhil Datta & Richard Davies & Josh De Lyon, 2022. "Non-tariff barriers and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," CEP Discussion Papers dp1888, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Amélie GUILLIN & Isabelle RABAUD & Chahir ZAKI, 2022. "Does the Depth of Trade Agreements Matter for Trade in Services? Evidence from the MENA Region," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2984, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Conconi, Paola & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Lobbying for Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Eleonora Mavroeidi, 2018. "Beyond tariff reductions: what extra boost from trade agreement provisions?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1532, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Marina Steininger, 2022. "Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 401-465, May.
    5. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    6. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    8. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    9. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    10. Aaditya Mattoo & Alen Mulabdic & Michele Ruta, 2022. "Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 1598-1637, August.
    11. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Ingo Borchert & Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Disaggregated gravity: Benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 113-136, February.
    13. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Korn, Tobias, 2021. "Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from 'Uxit'," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-681, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    16. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. Maria Cipollina & David Laborde Debucquet & Luca Salvatici, 2017. "The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 199-231, February.
    19. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    20. Heid, Benedikt & Larch, Mario, 2016. "Gravity with unemployment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 70-85.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade agreements; deep agreements; economic integration; provisions; non-tariff barriers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:114282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.