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Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade

Author

Listed:
  • George Alessandria
  • Shafaat Yar Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We study China’s export growth to the United States from 1950 to 2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China’s 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986–92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China’s WTO accession.

Suggested Citation

  • George Alessandria & Shafaat Yar Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2025. "Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(3), pages 713-749.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/733420
    DOI: 10.1086/733420
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    Cited by:

    1. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Hyewon Ma & Joseph A. Clougherty, 2026. "Third-country MNEs, trade wars, and competitive opportunities: a real-options perspective," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 57(1), pages 102-119, February.
    3. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    4. Carattini, Stefano & Huang, Hanwei & Pisch, Frank & Singh, Tejendra Pratap, 2025. "Trade and the Scopes of Pollution: Evidence from China's World Market Integration," Economics Working Paper Series 2504, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Lorenz K.F. Ekerdt & Kai-Jie Wu, 2024. "The Rise of Specialized Firms," Working Papers 24-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Prud’homme, Dan & Han, Nianchen & McCourt, David & Chacar, Aya, 2025. "Divorce or temporary separation? Lessons from the US’s history of decoupling with China and other nations," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5).
    9. Nicholas Bloom & Kyle Handley & André Kurmann & Philip A. Luck, 2024. "The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 33098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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