IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03616218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, Department of Economics - EUI - European University Institute, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

  • Houssein Guimbard

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Gianluca Orefice

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Trade elasticity which varies widely across products is a crucial parameter in evaluating the welfare impacts of changes in trade frictions. We estimate trade elasticities at the product level by exploiting the variation in bilateral tariffs for each product category for the universe of country pairs over the 2001 to 2016 period. The predicted trade flows using the product-specific trade elasticities estimated here match the observed post-EPA import between the US and Chile, confirming the accuracy of our estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Post-Print hal-03616218, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03616218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Kishore Gawande & Usree Bandyopadhyay, 2000. "Is Protection for Sale? Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 139-152, February.
    3. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Make Trade Not War?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 865-900.
    4. Broda, Christian & Greenfield, Joshua & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "From groundnuts to globalization: A structural estimate of trade and growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 759-783.
    5. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    6. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    7. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    8. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    9. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    11. Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2018. "The US Gains from Trade: Valuation Using the Demand for Foreign Factor Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    12. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    13. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    14. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    15. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    17. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    18. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    19. Machado, José A.F. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2019. "Quantiles via moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 145-173.
    20. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "Aggregation and the Gravity Equation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 450-455, May.
    21. Fontagné, Lionel & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "Let’s try next door: Technical Barriers to Trade and multi-destination firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 643-663.
    22. Monika Mrázová & J. Peter Neary, 2017. "Not So Demanding: Demand Structure and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3835-3874, December.
    23. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    24. David Hummels & Alexandre Skiba, 2004. "Shipping the Good Apples Out? An Empirical Confirmation of the Alchian-Allen Conjecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1384-1402, December.
    25. Christoph E. Boehm & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2023. "The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 861-905, April.
    26. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    27. Céline Carrère & Monika Mrázová & J Peter Neary, 2020. "Gravity Without Apology: the Science of Elasticities, Distance and Trade," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 880-910.
    28. Soderbery, Anson, 2018. "Trade elasticities, heterogeneity, and optimal tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 44-62.
    29. Sandra Sequeira, 2016. "Corruption, Trade Costs, and Gains from Tariff Liberalization: Evidence from Southern Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3029-3063, October.
    30. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Make Trade Not War?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 865-900.
    31. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    33. Giri, Rahul & Yi, Kei-Mu & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Gains from trade: Does sectoral heterogeneity matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    34. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    35. Ossa, Ralph, 2015. "Why trade matters after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 266-277.
    36. Neary, Peter & Carrère, Céline & Mrázová, Monika, 2020. "Gravity without Apologies: The Science of Elasticities, Distance, and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 14473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    38. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    39. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 135-150, March.
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2j87pv5ou185f980qgrpf9net0 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    42. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Trade Costs, CO2, and the Environment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 220-254, November.
    44. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    45. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/nki2gcedn93280ns6fslbhdnm is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," SciencePo Working papers hal-03579844, HAL.
    47. Spearot, Alan C., 2013. "Variable demand elasticities and tariff liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 26-41.
    48. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    49. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    50. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    51. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    52. Alan de Bromhead & Alan Fernihough & Markus Lampe & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2019. "When Britain Turned Inward: The Impact of Interwar British Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 325-352, February.
    53. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.
    2. Lionel Gérard Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2020. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities: Worth Weighting For," CESifo Working Paper Series 8491, CESifo.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.
    7. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heid, Benedikt & Larch, Mario, 2016. "Gravity with unemployment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 70-85.
    11. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    14. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    17. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2024. "International Friends and Enemies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 350-385, October.
    18. Giri, Rahul & Yi, Kei-Mu & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Gains from trade: Does sectoral heterogeneity matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    20. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Jiang, Lingduo & Lu, Yi & Song, Hong & Zhang, Guofeng, 2023. "Responses of exporters to trade protectionism: Inferences from the US-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    24. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    25. Blank, Sven & Egger, Peter H. & Merlo, Valeria & Wamser, Georg, 2022. "A structural quantitative analysis of services trade de-liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    26. Joseph S Shapiro, 2021. "The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 831-886.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Tariffs; Welfare gains; Trade elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03616218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.