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Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains

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  • Cecilia Bellora
  • Lionel Fontagné

Abstract

Since the beginning of 2018, the US administration has announced and implemented several measures limiting US trade, in particular with China. This has fueled retaliation and has escalated in high trade tensions at the global level. We address in this paper the effects of the current trade tensions on trade, sectoral value added and welfare, in General Equilibrium under imperfect competition. We rely on a set-up differentiating demand of goods according to their use, for final or intermediate consumption. This authorizes tracing the impact of protection, along the value chains, on prices, value added and factor income. Additional tariffs from official lists are averaged at the 6 digit level of the Harmonized System (HS6), before being aggregated at the sector level with a reference group weighted method. Negotiated quantities in Voluntary Export Restraints are also taken into account at the product level. Beyond the direct toll of sanctions, US exports to the world post a 7.5% decrease as a result of reduced competitiveness led by vertical linkages along the value chains. Because of the measures in place as of August 2019, three quarters of the sectors decrease their value added in the US, suggesting that with this tariff war the US are shooting themselves in the foot. The quantification of job destructions and creations in the different sectors is consistent with effects channeling through prices and demand along the value chains detrimental to downstream industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2019. "Reordering international trade: what will it cost?," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 27, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Laurence Wicht, 2019. "The impact of trade tensions on Switzerland: A quantitative assessment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 70(01), pages 1-34, December.
    3. Li, Minghao & Balistreri, Edward J. & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Rita Cappariello & Sebastian Franco-Bedoya & Vanessa Gunnella & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," CEP Discussion Papers dp1682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Beghin, John C. & Schweizer, Heidi, 2020. "Agricultural Trade Costs," Staff Papers 304761, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Bown, Chad P. & Erbahar, Aksel & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2020. "Global Value Chains and the Removal of Trade Protection," CEPR Discussion Papers 14451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. J.A. Giesecke & R. Waschik & N.H. Tran, 2019. "Modelling the Consequences of the U.S.-China Trade War and Related Trade Frictions for the U.S., Chinese, Australian and Global Economies," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-294, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. Fiorentini, Riccardo, 2020. "The Persisting US Trade Deficit: Is Protectionistm the Right Answer?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 155-186.
    9. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    10. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Jungran Cho & Emma Kyoungseo Hong & Jeongho Yoo & Inkyo Cheong, 2020. "The Impact of Global Protectionism on Port Logistics Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(4), pages 1-1, February.
    12. Meinen, Philipp & Schulte, Patrick & Cigna, Simone & Steinhoff, Nils, 2019. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Discussion Papers 46/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. J.A. Giesecke & N.H. Tran & R. Waschik, 2020. "Should Australia be Concerned by Beijing's Trade Threats: Modelling the Economic Costs of Restrictions on Imports of Australian Coal," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-310, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    14. Haiou Mao & Holger Görg, 2020. "Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1776-1791, July.
    15. Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz & Bożena Pera, 2020. "International Trade Disputes over Renewable Energy—the Case of the Solar Photovoltaic Sector," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    16. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade War; Global Value Chains;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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