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Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

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  • Emily J. Blanchard
  • Chad P. Bown
  • Davin Chor

Abstract

We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage (where efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act may have been more consequential), and where a new federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions disadvantaged more taxpayers. Counterfactual calculations suggest that Republicans would have lost ten fewer House seats absent the trade war, in a similar range to either health care or SALT policies in the number of lost seats it can account for.

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  • Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Davin Chor, 2019. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," NBER Working Papers 26434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26434
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    2. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2023. "Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections," Kiel Working Papers 2246, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    4. Freund,Caroline & Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "When Elephants Make Peace : The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement on Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9173, The World Bank.
    5. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    6. Shuichiro Nishioka & Eric Olson, 2023. "The political effects of trade with Japan in the 1980s," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 451-471, April.
    7. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    8. Ding, Guanzu & Guo, Guangyuan & Wu, Caiyun & Yu, Jiawen, 2022. "China-US trade friction and welfare: The role of regional trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "Do Exports to the US Increase Imports from China during the US–China Tariff War?," IDE Discussion Papers 946, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
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    11. Chaonan Feng & Liyan Han & Lei Li, 2023. "Who Pays for the Tariffs and Why? A Tale of Two Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10497, CESifo.
    12. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Sasatra SUDSAWASD, 2024. "Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand," Working Papers DP-2024-26, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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