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Trade protection along supply chains

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  • Bown, Chad P.
  • Conconi, Paola
  • Erbahar, Aksel
  • Trimarchi, Lorenzo

Abstract

During the last decades, the United States has applied increasingly high trade protection against China. We combine detailed information on US antidumping (AD) duties— the most widely used trade barrier — with US input-output data to study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we propose a new instrument for AD protection, which combines exogenous variation in the political importance of industries with their historical experience in AD proceedings. We find that tariffs have large negative effects on downstream industries, decreasing employment, wages, sales, and investment. Our baseline estimates for 1988-2016 indicate that, due to AD protection against China, around 1.8 million US jobs were lost in downstream industries, with no significant job gains in protected sectors. When we extend the analysis to measures introduced under President Trump, we find that around 500,000 jobs were lost during the first two years of his term. We also provide evidence of the mechanisms behind the negative effects of protection along supply chains: AD duties decrease imports and raise production costs for downstream industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bown, Chad P. & Conconi, Paola & Erbahar, Aksel & Trimarchi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Trade protection along supply chains," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114270, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:114270
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    2. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," Working Papers ECARES 2020-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Gianluca Santoni, 2023. "The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 37(3), pages 366-388.
    4. Thompson, Alexi & Thompson, Henry, 2023. "Addendum: The imputed effects of US tariffs on wages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 564-569.
    5. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2020. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," NBER Working Papers 26611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bown, Chad P. & Erbahar, Aksel & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2021. "Global value chains and the removal of trade protection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Magdalene Silberberger & Anja Slany & Christian Soegaard & Frederik Stender, 2022. "The Aftermath of Anti-Dumping: Are Temporary Trade Barriers Really Temporary?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 677-704, September.
    10. Grijalva, Diego F. & Uribe-Terán, Carlos & Gachet, Iván, 2024. "The Contractionary Effects of Protectionist Trade Policy in a Dollarized Economy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2021. "Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 15908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.
    13. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Martin Braml, 2020. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor or Favor thy Industry? An Empirical Review of Transatlantic Tariff Retaliation," ifo Working Paper Series 326, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Conconi, Paola & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Lobbying for Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    Keywords

    trade protection; supply chains; input-output linkages; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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