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The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Nadia Rocha

    (WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale)

  • Michele Ruta

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Gianluca Santoni

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

This paper explores the economic impacts of preferential trade agreements, conditional on their level of ambition. It clusters 278 agreements, encompassing 910 provisions over 18 policy areas and estimates the trade elasticity for the different clusters. These elasticities are used in a series of general-equilibrium counterfactual situations for endowment economies, revealing that deepening existing agreements (the intensive margin of regional integration) could boost world trade by 3.9 percent and world GDP by 0.9 percent. The expected gains from deepening agreements within or across regions vary depending on the initial depth of agreements and the size of regional markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Gianluca Santoni, 2023. "The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04208569, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04208569
    DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhad005
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Stephen R. Cray & Antoine Gervais, 2023. "Increasing Marginal Costs, Firm Heterogeneity,and the Gains from "Deep" International Trade Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 23-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Jordi Paniagua, 2024. "Do Deep Trade Agreements’ Provisions Actually Increase – or Decrease – Trade and/or FDI?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11526, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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