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Trade Policy and the China Syndrome

Author

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  • Lorenzo Trimarchi

    (Université de Namur)

Abstract

The recent backlash against free trade is partially motivated by the decline in manufacturing employment due to rising import competition from China. Previous studies about the “China syndrome†neglect the role of trade policy. This is surprising, given that politicians in high-income countries have extensively used antidumping (AD) measures to protect their economies from rising Chinese imports. In this paper, I estimate the causal effect of trade protection on imports and employment, by constructing a new instrument for AD measures based on industries’ importance in swing states and experience in filing AD petitions. I show that AD duties have reduced import competition, decreasing the annual growth rate of US imports from China by 0.40 percentage points on average. They have also helped contain the China syndrome, by increasing the annual growth rate of employment in protected industries by 0.07 percentage points. These results show that protectionist instruments allowed under GATT/WTO rules can be used to attenuate the effects of import competition on employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," SERIES 05-2020, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_05-2020
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    Cited by:

    1. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.
    2. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li, 2025. "The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil," CESifo Working Paper Series 11654, CESifo.
    3. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    4. Leonardi, Marco & Meschi, Elena, 2021. "Do Non-tariff Barriers to Trade Save American Jobs and Wages?," IZA Discussion Papers 14162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Jacopo Timini & Marina Conesa, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    6. Tan Li & Wei Xiao, 2022. "US antidumping investigations and employment adjustment in Chinese manufacturing firms," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 159-182, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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