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Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Barattieri
  • Matteo Cacciatore

Abstract

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:97-128
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190445
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    Cited by:

    1. James Lake & Ding Liu, 2022. "Local Labor Market Effects of the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9909, CESifo.
    2. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Che, Yi & Lin, Donglin & Zhang, Yan, 2025. "Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Li, Wenjing & Peng, Yuanhuai & Sun, Hanwen & Tan, Youchao, 2025. "Trade shocks and investment efficiency," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Barattieri, Alessandro & Mattoo, Aaditya & Taglioni, Daria, 2025. "Trade effects of industrial policies: Are preferential agreements a shield?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 830-841.
    7. Helmut Franken & Alejandro Jara, 2023. "Monetary Policy Tightening and Bank Lending Standards: Evidence from the Chilean Bank Loan Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 996, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Barattieri, Alessandro & Borda, Patrice & Brugnoli, Alberto & Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "The short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters: New insights from Puerto Rico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    10. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Walter Steingress & Ben Tomlin, 2023. "Climate Variability and International Trade," Staff Working Papers 23-8, Bank of Canada.
    11. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li, 2025. "The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil," CESifo Working Paper Series 11654, CESifo.
    12. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Alfonso Ugarte, 2025. "Global | locproj y lpgraph: Comandos de Stata para estimar proyecciones locales [Global | locproj and lpgraph: Stata commands to estimate Local Projections]," Working Papers 25/09, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    14. Carlos Uribe-Terán & Diego F. Grijalva & Ivan Gachet, 2025. "The contractionary effects of protectionist trade policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 821-868, August.
    15. Hu, Jiukai & Luo, Deqing & Wang, Yiming, 2025. "Innovative incentive effects of domestic market integration: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta region of China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1580-1594.
    16. repec:bge:wpaper:1524 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Anastasiia Antonova & Luis Huxel & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Gernot J. Muller & Gernot Müller, 2025. "The Propagation of Tariff Shocks via Production Networks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11917, CESifo.
    18. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Bonk, Alica Ida & Larkou, Chloe, 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of trade policy: a new identification approach," Working Paper Series 3102, European Central Bank.
    21. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Felix Bierbrauer, 2022. "Nachhaltigkeitsziele und das Lieferkettengesetz [Sustainability Goals and Supply Chain Due Diligence Laws]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 344-346, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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