IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v15y2023i2p97-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Barattieri
  • Matteo Cacciatore

Abstract

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:97-128
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190445
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190445.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20190445.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mac.20190445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    2. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jee-Hyeong Park, 2004. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Antidumping Policy: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 134-154, March.
    3. Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Zhang, Yan, 2013. "How do exporters respond to antidumping investigations?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 290-300.
    4. Paola Conconi & Manuel García-Santana & Laura Puccio & Roberto Venturini, 2018. "From Final Goods to Inputs: The Protectionist Effect of Rules of Origin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2335-2365, August.
    5. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    7. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2006. "Policy externalities: How US antidumping affects Japanese exports to the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 696-714, September.
    8. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    9. Robert W. Staiger & Frank A. Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry-Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994 Micr), pages 51-118.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    11. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    12. Laura Alfaro & Paola Conconi & Harald Fadinger & Andrew F. Newman, 2016. "Do Prices Determine Vertical Integration?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 855-888.
    13. Erbahar, Aksel & Zi, Yuan, 2017. "Cascading trade protection: Evidence from the US," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-299.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    15. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    16. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    17. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    19. Petia Topalova & Amit Khandelwal, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 995-1009, August.
    20. Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Robert C. Johnson, 2016. "Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bruce A. Blonigen & Thomas J. Prusa, 2015. "Dumping and Antidumping Duties," NBER Working Papers 21573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    23. Yi Huang & Chen Lin & Sibo Liu & Heiwai Tang, 2018. "Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”," IHEID Working Papers 11-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    24. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Amit Kumar Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1727-1767.
    25. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
    26. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
    27. Laura Alfaro & Paola Conconi & Harald Fadinger & Andrew F. Newman, 2016. "Do Prices Determine Vertical Integration?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 855-888.
    28. Pierce, Justin R., 2011. "Plant-level responses to antidumping duties: Evidence from U.S. manufacturers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 222-233.
    29. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    30. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," SERIES 05-2020, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2020.
    31. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
    32. Davide Furceri & Swarnali A. Hannan & Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew K. Rose, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," NBER Working Papers 25402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "Networks, Barriers, and Trade," NBER Working Papers 26108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Jean-Paul Decamps & Sebastian Gryglewicz & Erwan Morellec & Stephane Villeneuve, 2016. "Corporate Policies with Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    35. Pierce, Justin R., 2011. "Plant-level responses to antidumping duties: Evidence from U.S. manufacturers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 222-233.
    36. repec:lic:licosd:14104 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    38. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    39. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James Lake & Ding Liu, 2022. "Local Labor Market Effects of the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9909, CESifo.
    2. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Barattieri, Alessandro & Borda, Patrice & Brugnoli, Alberto & Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "The short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters: New insights from Puerto Rico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Helmut Franken & Alejandro Jara, 2023. "Monetary Policy Tightening and Bank Lending Standards: Evidence from the Chilean Bank Loan Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 996, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Felix Bierbrauer, 2022. "Nachhaltigkeitsziele und das Lieferkettengesetz [Sustainability Goals and Supply Chain Due Diligence Laws]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 344-346, May.
    12. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Walter Steingress & Ben Tomlin, 2023. "Climate Variability and International Trade," Staff Working Papers 23-8, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2021. "Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 15908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jabbour, Liza & Tao, Zhigang & Vanino, Enrico & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "The good, the bad and the ugly: Chinese imports, European Union anti-dumping measures and firm performance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Yan Zhang, 2017. "Impact of Latin-American and Caribbean Antidumping Measures on Chinese Exports," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97857, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Paola Conconi & Manuel García-Santana & Laura Puccio & Roberto Venturini, 2018. "From Final Goods to Inputs: The Protectionist Effect of Rules of Origin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2335-2365, August.
    6. Grijalva, Diego F. & Uribe-Terán, Carlos & Gachet, Iván, 2024. "The Contractionary Effects of Protectionist Trade Policy in a Dollarized Economy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," SERIES 05-2020, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2020.
    8. Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Zhang, Yan, 2013. "How do exporters respond to antidumping investigations?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 290-300.
    9. Chandra, Piyush & Long, Cheryl, 2013. "Anti-dumping Duties and their Impact on Exporters: Firm Level Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 169-186.
    10. Marijke J.D. Bos & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2019. "Imported input varieties and product innovation: Evidence from five developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 520-548, May.
    11. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Erbahar, Aksel & Zi, Yuan, 2017. "Cascading trade protection: Evidence from the US," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-299.
    13. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, February.
    14. Baccini, Leonardo & Impullitti, Giammario & Malesky, Edmund J., 2019. "Globalization and state capitalism: Assessing Vietnam's accession to the WTO," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-92.
    15. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Pisch, Frank, 2020. "Managing global production: theory and evidence from just-in-time supply chains," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108488, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Zhang, Hongyong, 2018. "Political connections and antidumping investigations: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-41.
    18. Ari Van Assche & Byron Gangnes, . "Global value chains and the fragmentation of trade policy coalitions," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    19. Bishwanath Goldar & Deb Kusum Das & Pilu Chandra Das & Neha Gupta, 2020. "Domestic Versus Imported Contents in Exports: The Case of India’s Merchandise Trade," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 15(1), pages 62-96, April.
    20. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:97-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.