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Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Author

Listed:
  • Emily J. Blanchard

    (Dartmouth College)

  • Chad P. Bown

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Davin Chor

    (Dartmouth College)

Abstract

We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage (where efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act may have been more consequential), and where a new federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions disadvantaged more taxpayers. Counterfactual calculations suggest that Republicans would have lost ten fewer House seats absent the trade war, in a similar range to either health care or SALT policies in the number of lost seats it can account for.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Davin Chor, 2019. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," Working Paper Series WP19-21, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp19-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Ridley, William & Devadoss, Stephen, . "Determinants of Policy Responses in the US–China Tit-for-Tat Trade War," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 49(2).
    2. HAYAKAWA,Kazunobu & Dinh,Chuc Nguyen, 2025. "Foreign Firms in Vietnam and the US–China Trade War," IDE Discussion Papers 951, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    3. HAYAKAWA,Kazunobu & Keola,Souknilanh & Sudsawasd,Sasatra, 2025. "The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence from Thailand," IDE Discussion Papers 978, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Freund,Caroline & Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "When Elephants Make Peace : The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement on Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9173, The World Bank.
    5. Shuichiro Nishioka & Eric Olson, 2023. "The political effects of trade with Japan in the 1980s," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 451-471, April.
    6. Yoo Sun Jung & Yohan Park, 2024. "Winners and losers in U.S.–China trade disputes: A dynamic compositional analysis of foreign direct investment," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 105(4), pages 980-995, July.
    7. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2023. "Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections," Working Papers hal-04150484, HAL.
    8. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    9. Lionel Fontagné & Cecilia Bellora, 2019. "Shooting oneself in the foot? US trade policy coping with Global Value Chains," Post-Print hal-02128135, HAL.
    10. Almazán-Gómez, Miguel Ángel & El Khatabi, Fatima & Llano, Carlos & Pérez, Julián, 2025. "Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 919-940.
    11. Ding, Guanzu & Guo, Guangyuan & Wu, Caiyun & Yu, Jiawen, 2022. "China-US trade friction and welfare: The role of regional trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Sheng, Liugang & Song, Huasheng & Zheng, Xueqian, 2025. "How did Chinese exporters manage the trade war?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    14. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "Do Exports to the US Increase Imports from China during the US–China Tariff War?," IDE Discussion Papers 946, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    16. Chaonan Feng & Liyan Han & Lei Li, 2023. "Who Pays for the Tariffs and Why? A Tale of Two Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10497, CESifo.
    17. Shen, Haomin & Gao, Yuan & Cheng, Xiaoke & Wang, Qi, 2024. "The impact of the U.S. export controls on Chinese firms' innovation: Evidence from Chinese high-tech firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    18. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Sudsawasd, Sasatra, 2025. "Impacts of trade diversion from China in the United States market on wages in a third country: Evidence from Thailand," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    19. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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