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Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Author

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  • Emily J. Blanchard

    (Dartmouth College)

  • Chad P. Bown

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Davin Chor

    (Dartmouth College)

Abstract

We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage (where efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act may have been more consequential), and where a new federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions disadvantaged more taxpayers. Counterfactual calculations suggest that Republicans would have lost ten fewer House seats absent the trade war, in a similar range to either health care or SALT policies in the number of lost seats it can account for.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Davin Chor, 2019. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," Working Paper Series WP19-21, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp19-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    2. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2023. "Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections," Kiel Working Papers 2246, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Cecilia Bellora, 2019. "Shooting oneself in the foot? US trade policy coping with Global Value Chains," Post-Print hal-02128135, HAL.
    4. Ding, Guanzu & Guo, Guangyuan & Wu, Caiyun & Yu, Jiawen, 2022. "China-US trade friction and welfare: The role of regional trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    6. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    7. Freund,Caroline & Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "When Elephants Make Peace : The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement on Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9173, The World Bank.
    8. Chaonan Feng & Liyan Han & Lei Li, 2023. "Who Pays for the Tariffs and Why? A Tale of Two Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10497, CESifo.
    9. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    Keywords

    Trade War; Trade Policy; Retaliatory Tariffs; Agricultural Subsidies; Health Insurance Coverage; State and Local Taxes; Voting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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