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Suspiciously Timed Trade Disputes

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Conconi
  • David De Remer
  • Georg Kirchsteiger
  • Lorenzo Trimarchi
  • Maurizio Zanardi

Abstract

This paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995–2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Conconi & David De Remer & Georg Kirchsteiger & Lorenzo Trimarchi & Maurizio Zanardi, 2015. "Suspiciously Timed Trade Disputes," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/199236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2016. "Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 133-148.
    2. Kuenzel, David J., 2017. "WTO dispute determinants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 157-179.
    3. Giovanni Maggi & Robert W. Staiger, 2017. "Learning by Ruling and Trade Disputes," NBER Working Papers 23774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade disputes; elections; reciprocity;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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