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Suspiciously Timed Trade Disputes

Listed author(s):
  • Paola Conconi
  • David De Remer
  • Georg Kirchsteiger
  • Lorenzo Trimarchi
  • Maurizio Zanardi

This paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995–2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/199236/1/2015-16-suspiciously.pdf
File Function: 2015-16-suspiciously
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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2015-16.

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Length: 41 p.
Date of creation: May 2015
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/199236
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Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be

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