IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11331.html

Should We Stay or Should We Go? Firms’ Decision on Services Mode of Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Breinlich
  • Martina Magli

Abstract

Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which Modes services are traded (cross-border, movement of people, foreign investment or consumption abroad) and how firms substitute among these Modes. We provide novel micro-level evidence on firms’ mode choices, combining detailed data on UK firms’ trade and affiliates’ sales. We also estimate the substitution between trade Modes using Brexit as an exogenous shock, finding that UK firms increasingly relied on local affiliate sales to serve the EU market after 2016. This shift protected firm-level services exports from expected higher trade barriers after Brexit, but at the cost of lower domestic employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Breinlich & Martina Magli, 2024. "Should We Stay or Should We Go? Firms’ Decision on Services Mode of Supply," CESifo Working Paper Series 11331, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11331
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11331.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martina Magli, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1892, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    3. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2020. "When Tariffs Disturb Global Supply Chains," NBER Working Papers 27722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Export Versus FDI in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 61-78, January.
    8. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Peri, Giovanni & Wright, Greg C., 2018. "Immigration, trade and productivity in services: Evidence from U.K. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 88-108.
    9. Kren, Janez & Lawless, Martina, 2024. "How has Brexit changed EU–UK trade flows?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    11. Tamar Khachaturian & Sarah Oliver, 2023. "Intangible trade: Understanding the relationship between trade barriers and mode of supply in services sectors," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1189-1234, May.
    12. Douch, Mustaph & Huw Edwards, T., 2021. "The Brexit policy shock: Were UK services exports affected, and when?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 248-263.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Martina Magli, 2026. "Mind the break-up: when policy disrupts firms' supply chains," CEP Discussion Papers dp2183, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Shania Bhalotia & Sophie Piton & John Woods, 2026. "Trade in services under regulatory barriers: evidence from UK banking," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1181, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Haoyuan Ding & Haichao Fan & Guangyuan Guo & Guoyong Liang & Tong Qi, 2024. "Outward direct investment as a shelter from external trade policy shocks: Firm‐level investigation of the US–China trade war," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1203-1235, November.
    3. Mitsuyo ANDO & Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Fukunari KIMURA & Kenta YAMANOUCHI, 2025. "The Structure of Supply Chains and the Impacts of Trump 1.0 Tariffs: Evidence from Japanese firms’ sales to North America," Discussion papers 25046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Neil Foster-McGregor & Anders Isaksson & Florian Kaulich, 2014. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Exporting and Firm-Level Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 244-257, February.
    5. Andre Jungmittag, 2019. "Service trade restrictiveness and internationalisation of retail trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 293-333, April.
    6. Jun Du & Oleksandr Shepotylo & Xiaocan Yuan, 2025. "How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms?," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 80-104, March.
    7. Exadaktylos, Dimitrios & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2024. "Talents from abroad. Foreign managers and productivity in the United Kingdom," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Jena, Devasmita & Muzaffar, Uzair & Choudhury, Rahul Nath, 2025. "Weaning Away from China – Trade and Welfare Implications," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Markus Kelle & Jörn Kleinert & Horst Raff & Farid Toubal, 2013. "Cross-border and Foreign Affiliate Sales of Services: Evidence from German Microdata," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1373-1392, November.
    10. William W. Olney & Dario Pozzoli, 2021. "The Impact of Immigration on Firm-Level Offshoring," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 177-195, March.
    11. Joachim Wagner, 2014. "Exports, foreign direct investments and productivity: are services firms different?," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 24-37, January.
    12. Carlos Uribe-Terán & Diego F. Grijalva & Ivan Gachet, 2025. "The contractionary effects of protectionist trade policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 821-868, August.
    13. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "International Trade and Firm Performance: A Survey of Empirical Studies since 2006," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Microeconometrics of International Trade, chapter 2, pages 43-87, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Wei Luo & Siyuan Kang & Sheng Hu & Lixian Su & Rui Dai, 2023. "Dual Effects of the US-China Trade War and COVID-19 on United States Imports: Transfer of China's industrial chain?," Papers 2309.02271, arXiv.org.
    15. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Shao, Yanmin & Shang, Yan, 2016. "Decisions of OFDI Engagement and Location for Heterogeneous Multinational firms: Evidence from Chinese firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 178-187.
    17. Alejandro G. Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus & Alejandro Graziano, 2024. "Trading Places: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Multinational Firms’ Location," CESifo Working Paper Series 11514, CESifo.
    18. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hu, Yichuan & Li, Chang & Lin, Shu, 2026. "Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. repec:npf:wpaper:18/243 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kiyoyasu Tanaka, 2015. "Firm Heterogeneity and FDI in Distribution Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1295-1311, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.