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How Globalization Unravels: A Ricardian Model of Endogenous Trade Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Tomohide Mineyama

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Dongho Song

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

We study how uneven gains from globalization can endogenously generate protectionism as a political equilibrium. Using U.S. data, we document that regions more exposed to import competition display stronger opposition to globalization, especially among households with little financial wealth, and that firms in trade-exposed sectors sharply increase lobbying expenditures. To interpret these patterns, we develop and quantify a general equilibrium Ricardian model with heterogeneous households, input–output linkages, and endogenous trade policy shaped by voting and lobbying. Distributional shocks reallocate political support among voters, while lobbying propagates through production networks, generating strategic complementarities that sustain protectionism. Calibrated to U.S.–China sectoral data from 1991–2019, the model accounts for rising inequality, declining support for globalization, and key aggregate trends in consumption and trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2026. "How Globalization Unravels: A Ricardian Model of Endogenous Trade Policy," PIER Working Paper Archive 26-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:26-001
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    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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