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Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
  • Mr. Jiaqian Chen
  • Mr. Christian H Ebeke
  • Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
  • Tryggvi Gudmundsson
  • Ms. Anna Ilyina
  • Mr. Alvar Kangur
  • Tansaya Kunaratskul
  • Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
  • Michele Ruta
  • Tatjana Schulze
  • Gabriel Soderberg
  • Mr. Juan P Trevino

Abstract

After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Tryggvi Gudmundsson & Ms. Anna Ilyina & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Tansaya Kunaratskul & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez & Mi, 2023. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2023/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2023/001
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Connecting Eurasian Supply Chains: The Impact of Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War on the EU-China Rail Landbridge
      by richard.pomfret@adelaide.edu.au (Richard Pomfret) in Asia Economics Blog on 2022-12-01 15:52:14
    2. Geopolitical Fragmentation, Regional Cooperation, and Prospects for ASEAN Trade and Value Chains
      by mplummer@jhubc.it (Michael Plummer) in Asia Economics Blog on 2023-07-03 14:10:46

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Borin & Gianmarco Cariola & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Michele Mancini & Tullia Padellini & Ludovic Panon & Enrico Sette, 2023. "Inputs in geopolitical distress: a risk assessment based on micro data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 819, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    3. Warning, Hans Olaf & Grömling, Michael & Schulke, Arne, 2023. "Cash IS king! – Securing liquidity in economic crisis," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 1 (April 2023), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    4. Galina Chebotareva & Inna Čábelková & Wadim Strielkowski & Luboš Smutka & Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska & Stanislaw Bielski, 2023. "The Role of State in Managing the Wind Energy Projects: Risk Assessment and Justification of the Economic Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wibaux, Pauline, 2023. "Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers," CEPR Discussion Papers 17853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    7. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    8. Eichenauer, Vera & Wang, Feicheng, 2024. "Mild deglobalization: Foreign investment screening and cross-border investment," Kiel Working Papers 2265, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Karl Aiginger & Christian Ketels, 2024. "Industrial Policy Reloaded," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Maksim V. Petrov, 2024. "The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 8-22, June.

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