IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/20-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Fariha Kamal
  • Ryan Monarch

Abstract

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro data. More exposed products experienced 2 percentage point lower growth relative to products with no exposure. The decline in exports is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of almost 2% for the typical product and almost 4% for products with higher than average exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2020. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," Working Papers 20-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:20-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2020/CES-WP-20-01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2017. "A Portrait of Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 896-911, December.
    2. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Chong Xiang, 2018. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 981-1028, September.
    4. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    5. Christoph E. Boehm & Aaron Flaaen & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 60-75, March.
    6. Chad P. Bown, 2019. "The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection," Working Paper Series WP19-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    9. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    10. Miguel Almunia & Pol Antràs & David Lopez-Rodriguez & Eduardo Morales, 2021. "Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3611-3662, November.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & Teresa C. Fort & Valerie Smeets & Frederic Warzynski, 2020. "Heterogeneous Globalization: Offshoring and Reorganization," NBER Working Papers 26854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pol Antràs & Teresa C. Fort & Felix Tintelnot, 2017. "The Margins of Global Sourcing: Theory and Evidence from US Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2514-2564, September.
    13. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Teresa C. Fort, 2017. "Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic versus Foreign Sourcing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 650-687.
    15. Timothy Dunne & J. Bradford Jensen & Mark J. Roberts, 2009. "Introduction to "Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data"," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 1-12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    17. Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 326-334, May.
    18. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "Importers, Exporters and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 513-552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. David Hummels & Rasmus J?rgensen & Jakob Munch & Chong Xiang, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1597-1629, June.
    20. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    21. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Timothy Dunne & J. Bradford Jensen & Mark J. Roberts, 2009. "Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dunn05-1, June.
    23. Mike Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 1226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2002. "The Longitudinal Business Database," Working Papers 02-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    3. Munisamy Gopinath, 2021. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 604-618, June.
    4. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    5. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "Global Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-619, June.
    7. Handley, Kyle & Kamal, Fariha & Monarch, Ryan, 2024. "Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    10. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Chad P. Bown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection along Supply Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8812, CESifo.
    12. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Magne Mogstad & Felix Tintelnot, 2021. "Trade and Domestic Production Networks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 643-668.
    13. Teresa C. Fort, 2017. "Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic versus Foreign Sourcing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 650-687.
    14. Fiorentini, Riccardo, 2020. "The Persisting US Trade Deficit: Is Protectionistm the Right Answer?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 155-186.
    15. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Fariha Kamal, 2019. "A Portrait of US Factoryless Goods Producers," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, pages 425-447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Felix Tintelnot & Ken Kikkawa & Magne Mogstad & Emannuel Dhyne, 2018. "Trade and Domestic Production Networks," Working Paper Research 344, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Bernard, Andrew & Fort, Teresa & Smeets, Valerie & Warzynski, Frederic, 2020. "Heterogeneous Globalization: Offshoring and Reorganization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Bown, Chad P., 2021. "The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 805-843.
    20. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global supply chains; tariffs; trade war; U.S. exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:20-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.