IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v80y1998i2p326-334.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas A. Irwin

Abstract

In the two years after the imposition of the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930, the volume of U.S. imports fell over 40%. To what extent can this collapse of trade be attributed to the tariff itself versus other factors such as declining income or foreign retaliation? Partial and general equilibrium assessments indicate that the Smoot-Hawley tariff itself reduced imports by 4-8% (ceteris paribus), although the combination of specific duties and deflation further raised the effective tariff and reduced imports an additional 8-10%. A counterfactual simulation suggests that nearly a quarter of the observed 40% decline in imports can be attributed to the rise in the effective tariff (i.e., Smoot-Hawley plus deflation). © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 326-334, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:2:p:326-334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465398557410
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crucini, Mario J. & Kahn, James, 1996. "Tariffs and aggregate economic activity: Lessons from the Great Depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 427-467, December.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    3. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    4. Kokoski, Mary F & Smith, V Kerry, 1987. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Partial-Equilibrium Welfare Measures: The Case of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 331-341, June.
    5. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, September.
    6. Robert Archibald & David Feldman & Marc Hayford & Carl Pasurka, 2000. "Effective rates of protection and the Fordney-McCumber and Smoot-Hawley Tariff Acts: comment and revised estimates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 1223-1226.
    7. Shiells, Clinton R, 1991. "Errors in Import-Demand Estimates Based upon Unit-Value Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 378-382, May.
    8. Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips63-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Travis Warziniack & David Finnoff & Jonathan Bossenbroek & Jason Shogren & David Lodge, 2011. "Stepping Stones for Biological Invasion: A Bioeconomic Model of Transferable Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 50(4), pages 605-627, December.
    2. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    3. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
    4. Finnoff, David & Tschirhart, John, 2008. "Linking dynamic economic and ecological general equilibrium models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 91-114, May.
    5. Adam Rose, 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: estimation for the analysis of policies and rules," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 8, pages 172-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Athanasopoulos, George & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 116-129, September.
    7. Marc Vielle & Alain L. Bernard, 1998. "Un exemple d'utilisation : le coût de politiques de réduction des gaz à effet de serre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 33-48.
    8. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kamberoglou, Nicos C. & Simigiannis, George T., 2001. "Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Greece? Evidence from bank level data," Working Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    10. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    12. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    13. Fabian Knorre & Martin Wagner & Maximilian Grupe, 2021. "Monitoring Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Theory and Application to the Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, March.
    14. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    15. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Marcia Macedo & Žiga Malek & Peter Verburg & Sean Goodwin & Renato Vargas & Ludmila Rattis & Paulo M. Brando & Michael T. Coe & Christopher Neill & Octavio Damiani, 2020. "An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0292, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    16. Peter G. Warr & Frances Wollmer, 1996. "The Demand For Ldc Exports Of Primary Commodities: The Case Of The Philippines," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(1), pages 37-49, April.
    17. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, 2020. "Revisiting Energy Demand Relationship: Theory and Empirical Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp067, IIIS.
    19. Micha Gisser & Raymond Sauer, 2000. "The Aggregate Relation between Profits and Concentration is Consistent with Cournot Behavior," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 16(3), pages 229-246, May.
    20. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:2:p:326-334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.