The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment
In the two years after the imposition of the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930, the volume of U.S. imports fell over 40 percent. To what extent can this collapse of trade be attributed to the tariff itself versus other factors such as declining income or foreign retaliation? Partial and general equilibrium assessments indicate that the Smoot-Hawley tariff itself reduced imports by 4-8 percent (ceteris paribus), although the combination of specific duties and deflation further raised the effective tariff and reduced imports an additional 8-10 percent. A counter-factual simulation suggests that nearly a quarter of the observed 40 percent decline in imports can be attributed to the rise in the effective tariff, (i.e., Smoot-Hawley plus deflation).
|Date of creation:||Mar 1996|
|Publication status:||published as Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1998).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clarida, Richard H, 1994.
"Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
- Richard H. Clarida, 1992. "Cointegration, aggregate consumption, and the demand for imports: a structural econometric investigation," Research Paper 9213, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "Co-Integration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand For Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Archibald & David Feldman & Marc Hayford & Carl Pasurka, 2000. "Effective rates of protection and the Fordney-McCumber and Smoot-Hawley Tariff Acts: comment and revised estimates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 1223-1226.
- Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992.
"Applying General Equilibrium,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867, October.
- Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips63-1, 08.
- Kokoski, Mary F & Smith, V Kerry, 1987. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Partial-Equilibrium Welfare Measures: The Case of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 331-41, June.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
- Crucini, M.J. & Kahn, J., 1994.
"Tarrifs and Aggregate Economic Activity: Lessons from the Great Depression,"
RCER Working Papers
383, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Crucini, Mario J. & Kahn, James, 1996. "Tariffs and aggregate economic activity: Lessons from the Great Depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 427-467, December.
- Shiells, Clinton R, 1991. "Errors in Import-Demand Estimates Based upon Unit-Value Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 378-82, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.