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Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach

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  • Roberto Cellini
  • Tiziana Cuccia

Abstract

This article takes a time-series analysis approach to evaluate the directions of causality between tourism flows, on the one side, and museum and monument attendance, on the other. We consider Italy as a case study, and analyse monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2010. All the considered series are seasonally integrated, and co-integration links emerge. We focus on the error-correction mechanism among co-integrated time series to detect the directional link(s) of causality. Clear-cut results emerge: bi-directional causality exists in the long-run dynamics, but it is the long-run dynamics of visits to museums and monuments that mainly adjust to tourism variables (arrivals, overnights, average stays). In the short run, there are some causal effects going from the cultural sites’ attendance to tourism dynamics. The nonstationary nature of time series, their co-integration relationships and the direction of causal links suggest specific implications for tourism and cultural policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:24:p:3473-3482
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.716150
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2020. "Choices on museum attendance: An agent‐based approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 882-897, November.
    2. Salvatore Ingrassia & Antonio Punzo, 0. "Cluster Validation for Mixtures of Regressions via the Total Sum of Squares Decomposition," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 0, pages 1-22.
    3. Juan Gabriel Brida & Chiara Dalle Nogare & Raffaele Scuderi, 2017. "Learning at the museum," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 281-294, March.
    4. Calogero Guccio & Domenico Lisi & Anna Mignosa & Ilde Rizzo, 2017. "Has cultural heritage monetary value an impact on visits? An assessment using Italian official data," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-02-2017, Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Feb 2017.
    5. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide, 2014. "The evolution of theatre attendance in Italy: patrons and companies," MPRA Paper 63301, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2015.
    6. Francesca Petrei & Lorenzo Cavallo & Maria Teresa Santoro, 2020. "Cultural tourism: an integrated analysis based on official data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1705-1724, December.
    7. Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela, 2013. "The effects of World Heritage Sites on domestic tourism: a spatial interaction model for Italy," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 369-402, July.
    8. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2018. "How free admittance affects charged visits to museums: an analysis of the Italian case," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 680-698.
    9. Harold E. Cuffe, 2018. "Rain and museum attendance: Are daily data fine enough?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(2), pages 213-241, May.
    10. Juan Gabriel Brida & Chiara Dalle Nogare & Raffaele Scuderi, 2016. "Frequency of museum attendance: motivation matters," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 40(3), pages 261-283, August.
    11. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia & Domenico Lisi, 2020. "Spatial dependence in museum services: an analysis of the Italian case," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(4), pages 535-562, December.
    12. Enrico E. Bertacchini & Chiara Dalle Nogare & Raffaele Scuderi, 2018. "Ownership, organization structure and public service provision: the case of museums," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(4), pages 619-643, November.
    13. Salvatore Ingrassia & Antonio Punzo, 2020. "Cluster Validation for Mixtures of Regressions via the Total Sum of Squares Decomposition," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 37(2), pages 526-547, July.
    14. Zhenshan Xu & Hong Zhang & Chunhui Zhang & Man Xu & Nan Dong, 2019. "Exploring the Role of Emotion in the Relationship between Museum Image and Tourists’ Behavioral Intention: The Case of Three Museums in Xi’an," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, January.
    15. Douglas S. Noonan & Ilde Rizzo, 2017. "Economics of cultural tourism: issues and perspectives," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 41(2), pages 95-107, May.
    16. JG. Brida & M. Pulina & E. Riaño, 2010. "Visitors' experience in a modern art museum: a structural equation model," Working Paper CRENoS 201026, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    17. F. Di Lascio & Simone Giannerini & Antonello Scorcu & Guido Candela, 2011. "Cultural tourism and temporary art exhibitions in Italy: a panel data analysis," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(4), pages 519-542, November.
    18. Ingrassia, Salvatore & Minotti, Simona C. & Punzo, Antonio, 2014. "Model-based clustering via linear cluster-weighted models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 159-182.
    19. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Calogero Guccio & Domenico Lisi & Anna Mignosa & Ilde Rizzo, 2018. "Does cultural heritage monetary value have an impact on visits? An assessment using official Italian data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 297-318, May.
    21. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2019. "Weather conditions and museum attendance: a case-study from Sicily," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 511-527, June.
    22. Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela, 2016. "The Effects of World Heritage Sites on Domestic Tourism: A Spatial Interaction Model for Italy," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 281-315, Springer.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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