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Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Author

Listed:
  • Cevat G Aksoy

    (King‘s College London, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

  • Sergei Guriev

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Daniel Treisman

    (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

We provide the first large-scale, global evidence on the impact of the skill composition of trade on political approval. We show that political implications of trade shocks depend on the relationship between workers' skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using Gallup World Poll surveys of a million respondents from 120 countries over 2005-2018, we show that growth in high skill intensive exports increases confidence in government among skilled individuals relative to unskilled ones. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. Growth in low skill intensive exports (imports) increases (decreases) confidence in government among unskilled individuals relative to skilled ones. To identify causal relationships, we construct instruments based on time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade in goods of different skill intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevat G Aksoy & Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2022. "Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide," Working Papers hal-03878678, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03878678
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03878678
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    Cited by:

    1. Giordani, Paolo E. & Mariani, Fabio, 2022. "Unintended consequences: Can the rise of the educated class explain the revival of protectionism?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Carl Leonard Fischer & Lorenz Meister, 2023. "Economic Determinants of Populism," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 145, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Aksoy, Cevat & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The political scar of epidemics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118901, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Klaus Kornwachs & Nico Stehr, 2021. "Die Frage der Qualifizierung in einer digitalisierten Gesellschaft [The Question of Qualification in a Digitalised Society]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(1), pages 33-39, January.
    6. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    7. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 13351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Pompeo Della Posta, 2021. "An analysis of the current backlash of economic globalization in a model with heterogeneous agents," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 101-120, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Political approval; Skill intensity of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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