IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13351.html

The Political Scar of Epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Eichengreen, Barry

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Saka, Orkun

    (University of London)

Abstract

What will be political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual's "impressionable years" (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. We find similar negative effects on confidence in public health systems, suggesting that the loss of confidence in political leadership and institutions is associated with healthcare-related policies at the time of the epidemic. In line with this argument, our results are mostly driven by individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with less capacity to act against the epidemic, disappointing their citizens. We provide evidence of this mechanism by showing that weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results imply that the Coronavirus may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation ("Generation Z").

Suggested Citation

  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 13351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13351.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campante, Filipe & Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Durante, Ruben, 2020. "The Virus of Fear: The Political Impact of Ebola in the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 14518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    3. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    4. Chang Ma & John Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2023. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2098-2130.
    5. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Orkun Saka & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1683-1700.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Nikita Melnikov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2021. "3G Internet and Confidence in Government," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2533-2613.
    8. Greif, Avner, 1989. "Reputation and Coalitions in Medieval Trade: Evidence on the Maghribi Traders," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 857-882, December.
    9. Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2020. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior During a Pandemic," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Blair, Robert A. & Morse, Benjamin S. & Tsai, Lily L., 2017. "Public health and public trust: Survey evidence from the Ebola Virus Disease epidemic in Liberia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 89-97.
    11. Kuran, Timur, 1987. "Preference Falsification, Policy Continuity and Collective Conservatism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 642-665, September.
    12. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2016. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 573-590, July.
    13. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Ajzenman, Nicolas & da Mata, Daniel, 2020. "More than Words: Leaders’ Speech and Risky Behavior During a Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14707, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Christopher J. Anderson & Yuliya V. Tverdova, 2003. "Corruption, Political Allegiances, and Attitudes Toward Government in Contemporary Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 91-109, January.
    16. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    18. Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2023. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 351-371, August.
    19. Cevat G. Aksoy & Sergei Guriev & Daniel S. Treisman, 2018. "Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide," NBER Working Papers 25062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Margalit, Yotam, 2011. "Costly Jobs: Trade-related Layoffs, Government Compensation, and Voting in U.S. Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 166-188, February.
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5744igqofr9qr9hjd2eiomr7qc is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Eichengreen, Barry & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    23. Fetzer, Thiemo & Witte, Marc & Hensel, Lukas & Jachimowicz, Jon M. & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Reutskaja, Elena & Roth, Christopher & Gomez, Margarita & Kraft-Todd, Gordon & Goetz, Frie, 2020. "Global Behaviors and Perceptions in the COVID-19 Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Fetzer, Thiemo & Witte, Marc & Hensel, Lukas & Jachimowicz, Jon M. & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Caria, Stefano & Elena Reutskaja & Roth, Christopher & Fiorin, Stefano & Gomez, Margarita , 2020. "Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 472, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    25. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5744igqofr9qr9hjd2eiomr7qc is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2014. "Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, April.
    27. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 13351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2021. "Growing up in the Iran–Iraq war and preferences for strong defense," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1945-1968, November.
    29. Jensen, J. Bradford & Quinn, Dennis P. & Weymouth, Stephen, 2017. "Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on US Presidential Voting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 423-457, July.
    30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    32. Margarita GoÌ mez & Andriy Ivchenko & Elena Reutskaja & Pablo Soto-Mota, 2020. "Behaviours, perceptions and mental wellbeing in high- income and low/middle-income countries at the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 128-146, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 13351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Guglielmo Briscese & Maddalena Grignani & Stephen Stapleton, 2022. "Crises and Political Polarization: Towards a Better Understanding of the Timing and Impact of Shocks and Media," Papers 2202.12339, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    3. Andrea Fazio & Tomasso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini, 2021. "The political cost of lockdown´s enforcement," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2021-04, Masaryk University, revised Feb 2023.
    4. Fazio, Andrea & Reggiani, Tommaso & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "The political cost of sanctions: Evidence from COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 872-878.
    5. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    6. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    7. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "When Distrust Goes Viral: Causal Effects of Covid-19 on European Political Attitudes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8804, CESifo.
    8. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "When Economic and Health Crises Collide: The Effect of Covid-19 on Political Attitudes," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-18_2, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    9. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Ganslmeier, Michael & Poutvaara, Panu, 2020. "Public Attention and Policy Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José‐Luis Peydró & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2022. "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372, December.
    11. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "Wind of Change? Experimental Survey Evidence on the Covid-19 Shock and Socio-Political Attitudes in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 8517, CESifo.
    12. Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini, 2022. "Organization, Citizenship, and the Social Contract," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 195-222, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. Samuel Berlinski & Matias Busso & Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini, 2022. "A Primer on Trust: Measures and Determinants," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 27-50, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Miguel Porrua & Benjamin Roseth, 2022. "The Link between Trust and Digital Transformation," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 143-168, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Klaus Gründler & Armin Hackenberger & Anina Harter & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Crisis Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 9096, CESifo.
    17. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2023. "Externalities and the Erosion of Trust," CESifo Working Paper Series 10474, CESifo.
    18. Sergio Perilla & Razvan Vlaicu & Phillip Keefer, 2022. "Trust, Citizenship, and the Making of Good Public Policy," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 79-108, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Blum, Matthias & Hornung, Erik & Koenig, Christoph, 2025. "The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Cevat G. Aksoy & Sergei Guriev & Daniel S. Treisman, 2018. "Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide," NBER Working Papers 25062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.