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The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War

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  • James Lake
  • Jun Nie

Abstract

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the trade war: US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support but foreign retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump crossing the recount thresholds in Georgia and Wisconsin. These effects cross political and racial lines, suggesting the mechanism operates through the impact on local economies rather than political polarization. Even more important politically, voters abandoned Trump in counties with large expansions of health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this anti-Trump effect, Trump would have been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes.

Suggested Citation

  • James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9669
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9669.pdf
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    1. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    2020 US Presidential election; Trump; Affordable Care Act; health insurance; trade war; tariffs; retaliation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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