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The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Baccini

    (McGill University
    CIREQ)

  • Abel Brodeur

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Stephen Weymouth

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:34:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-020-00820-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 1st February 2021
      by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2021-02-01 12:00:03

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    Cited by:

    1. Fazio, Andrea & Reggiani, Tommaso & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "The political cost of sanctions: Evidence from COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 872-878.
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    3. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    5. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow, 2021. "Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1445-1472, October.
    6. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Hessami, Zohal & Khasanboev, Temurbek, 2022. "Political Selection When Uncertainty Is High," IZA Discussion Papers 15509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    8. Karabulut, Gokhan & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2021. "Democracy and COVID-19 outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.
    10. Maxim Ananyev & Michael Poyker & Yuan Tian, 2021. "The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 775-802, July.
    11. Carlos Miguel Ferreira & Sandro Serpa, 2021. "COVID-19 Stigma and Charismatic Social Relationship: A Legitimization Narrative of President Trump’s Status as a Charismatic Leader following a SARS-CoV-2 Infection Reported by the Portuguese Media," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Ján Palguta & Levínský, René & Škoda, Samuel, 2021. "Do Elections Accelerate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 891, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Rees-Jones, Alex & D’Attoma, John & Piolatto, Amedeo & Salvadori, Luca, 2022. "Experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and support for safety-net expansion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1090-1104.
    14. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    15. Anton M. Pillay & Jeremiah Madzimure, 2021. "Democracy in Decline: Three Global Trends and How They Highlight the Case of “American Exceptionalism” and the Need to Re-Think IR Theory," Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(3), pages 138-149.
    16. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    18. Martin Kahanec & Lukáš Lafférs & Bernhard Schmidpeter, 2021. "The impact of repeated mass antigen testing for COVID-19 on the prevalence of the disease," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1105-1140, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Pandemic; Elections; Political behavior; Pre-analysis plan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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