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The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Bauernschuster, Stefan

    (University of Passau)

  • Blum, Matthias

    (German Medical Association)

  • Hornung, Erik

    (University of Cologne)

  • Koenig, Christoph

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

Abstract

How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauernschuster, Stefan & Blum, Matthias & Hornung, Erik & Koenig, Christoph, 2023. "The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 666, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:666
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp666.2023.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Bauernschuster & Matthias Blum & Erik Hornung & Christoph Koenig, 2023. "How the 1918 influenza pandemic affected voting in the Weimar Republic," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 053, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Felix Kersting, 2023. "Mimicking the Opposition: Bismarck's Welfare State and the Rise of the Socialists," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 448, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Elections; Health; Voting behavior; Issue salience; Issue ownership; Weimar Republic JEL Classification: D72; I18; N34; H51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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