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The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany

Author

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  • Bauernschuster, Stefan
  • Blum, Matthias
  • Hornung, Erik
  • Koenig, Christoph

Abstract

How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauernschuster, Stefan & Blum, Matthias & Hornung, Erik & Koenig, Christoph, 2025. "The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:96:y:2025:i:c:s0014498324000743
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Spanish flu; Elections; Public health; Voting behavior; Issue salience; Issue ownership; Weimar Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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