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The Impact of Cyclones on Local Economic Growth: Evidence from Local Projections

Author

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  • Costanza Naguib
  • Martino Pelli
  • David Poirier
  • Jeanne Tschopp

Abstract

We shed new light on the short-term dynamic effects of cyclones on local economic growth in India. We proxy local GDP growth with night-time light intensity data and construct a cyclone index that varies across months and districts depending on windspeed exposures. Using local projections on highly granular data for the period 1993M1-2011M12, we find that yearly estimations hide large short-term differential impacts and that the negative impact of cyclones is the largest between 4 and 8 months after the event. Nous apportons un nouvel éclairage sur les effets dynamiques à court terme des cyclones sur la croissance économique locale en Inde. Nous substituons la croissance du PIB local par des données d'intensité lumineuse nocturne et construisons un indice cyclonique qui varie selon les mois et les districts en fonction de l'exposition à la vitesse du vent. En utilisant des projections locales sur des données très détaillées pour la période 1993M1-2011M12, nous constatons que les estimations annuelles cachent d'importants impacts différentiels à court terme et que l'impact négatif des cyclones est le plus important entre 4 et 8 mois après l'événement.

Suggested Citation

  • Costanza Naguib & Martino Pelli & David Poirier & Jeanne Tschopp, 2022. "The Impact of Cyclones on Local Economic Growth: Evidence from Local Projections," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-26, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-26
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2022s-26.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Barattieri, Alessandro & Borda, Patrice & Brugnoli, Alberto & Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "The short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters: New insights from Puerto Rico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Meier, Sarah & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric, 2023. "The regional economic impact of wildfires: Evidence from Southern Europe," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Tien Manh Vu & Hiroyuki Yamada, 2024. "Impacts of capital intensity on family formation and gender equality in Vietnam," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-001, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclone; night light; India; monthly measurements; local projections; cyclone; éclairage nocturne; Inde; mesures mensuelles; projections locales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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