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The Local Impact of Typhoons on Economic Activity in China: A View from Outer Space

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  • Robert J R Elliott
  • Eric Strobl
  • Puyang Sun

Abstract

We examine the impact of typhoons on local economic activity in coastal China. To capture potential damages from an individual typhoon we use historical typhoon track data in conjunction with a detailed wind-field model. We then combine our damage proxy with satellite derived nightlight intensity data to contact a panel data set that allows us to estimate the impact of typhoons at a spatially highly disaggregated level (approx. 1km). Our results show that typhoons have a negative and significant, but short term, impact on local activity - a typhoon that is estimated to destroy 50% of the property reduces local economic activity by 20% for that year. Over our period of analysis (1992-2010) total net economic losses are estimated to be in the region of US$28.34 billion. To assess the damage risk from future typhoons we use simulated probability distributions of typhoon occurrence and intensity and combine these with our estimated effects. Results suggest that expected annual losses are likely to be around US$0.54 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J R Elliott & Eric Strobl & Puyang Sun, 2015. "The Local Impact of Typhoons on Economic Activity in China: A View from Outer Space," Discussion Papers 15-11, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:15-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Pfeifer, Gregor & Wahl, Fabian & Marczak, Martyna, 2016. "Illuminating the world cup effect: Night lights evidence from South Africa," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 16-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    2. repec:eee:ecolec:v:146:y:2018:i:c:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Adriana Kocornik-Mina & Thomas K.J. McDermott & Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch, 2015. "Flooded cities," GRI Working Papers 221, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    4. Cao Wang & Hao Zhang & Kairui Feng & Quanwang Li, 2017. "Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1621-1635, February.
    5. Achim Ahrens, 2015. "Civil conflicts in Africa: Climate, economic shocks, nighttime lights and spill-over effects," SEEC Discussion Papers 1501, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    6. Nguyen, Cuong & Noy, Ilan, 2018. "Measuring the impact of insurance on urban recovery with light: The 2011 New Zealand earthquake," Working Paper Series 6955, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Measuring the Impact of Insurance on Urban Recovery with Light: The 2010-2011 New Zealand Earthquakes," CESifo Working Paper Series 7031, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; typhoons; wind field model; economic impact; nightlight imagery;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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