Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake
This paper examines the impact of the 1995 Kobe earthquake on the survival of manufacturing plants and their post-earthquake economic performance. The evidence from macroeconomic studies of the impact of natural disasters on economic growth is mixed with some papers finding a small negative effect while others often finding a positive effect. However, the local effects of disasters are often overlooked. In this paper, we undertake a detailed study of the local effects of the Kobe earthquake. We employ a micro-econometric approach based on carefully geo-coded data on initial plant locations and a building-level survey to measure accurately the damage to the buildings where the plants were located. Including plant and building characteristics as well as district-level variables to control for spatial dependencies, our results show that the greater the level of damage a plant experienced, the lower was its probability of survival. Interestingly, this effect persists for some years, although it diminished over time. Further fixed-effects panel analysis shows evidence of falling total employment and value added associated with earthquake damage. However, we find some evidence of creative destruction with the average plant experiencing a short-run increase in productivity although this advantage disappeared over time.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
- Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
- David Str�mberg, 2007. "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 199-222, Summer.
- Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 04/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007.
"Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters,"
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2005. "Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters," Working Papers 05-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
- Frank M.H. Neffke & Martin Henning & Ron Boschma, 2012.
"The impact of aging and technological relatedness on agglomeration externalities: a survival analysis,"
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 485-517, March.
- Ron Boschma & Martin Henning & Frank Neffke, 2009. "The Impact of Aging and Technological Relatedness on Agglomeration Externalities: A Survival Analysis," SERC Discussion Papers 0036, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Ron Boschma & Martin Henning & Frank Neffke, 2009. "The impact of aging and technological relatedness on agglomeration externalities: a survival analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33498, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- J. Bradford Jensen & Andrew Bernard, 2005.
"Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths,"
05-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2007. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 193-204, May.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2006. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," Working Paper Series WP06-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Ramcharan, Rodney, 2007. "Does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks? Evidence from windstorms and earthquakes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 31-47, September.
- Loayza, Norman & Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2009.
"Natural disasters and growth - going beyond the averages,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4980, The World Bank.
- Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
- Robert J. Barro, 2007.
"Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs,"
NBER Working Papers
13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, 03.
- Crespo Cuaresma & Hlouskova & Obersteiner, 2008. "Natural Disasters As Creative Destruction? Evidence From Developing Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 214-226, 04.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2009.
"The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes,"
NBER Working Papers
15373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2013. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 306-39, November.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," Working Papers 0912, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Thomas Fomby & Yuki Ikeda & Norman V. Loayza, 2013.
"The Growth Aftermath Of Natural Disasters,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 412-434, 04.
- G–rg, Holger & Eric Strobl, 2002.
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
89, Royal Economic Society.
- Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650, July.
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Falck, Oliver, 2007.
"Survival chances of new businesses: Do regional conditions matter?,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
20493, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Oliver Falck, 2007. "Survival chances of new businesses: do regional conditions matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2039-2048.
- Stanley Smith & Christopher McCarty, 1996. "Demographic effects of natural disasters: a case study of hurricane andrew," Demography, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 265-275, May.
- Faruk Selcuk & Erinc Yeldan, 2001.
"On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessment,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 483-488.
- Faruk Selcuk & Erinc Yeldan, 2000. "On The Macroeconomic Impact Of The August, 1999 Earthquake In Turkey: A First Assessment," Working Papers 2001, Economic Research Forum, revised Jan 2000.
- Sarah Bridges & Alessandra Guariglia, 2008. "Financial Constraints, Global Engagement, And Firm Survival In The United Kingdom: Evidence From Micro Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 444-464, 09.
- Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
- Ron A. Boschma & Rik Wenting, 2007. "The spatial evolution of the British automobile industry: Does location matter?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 213-238, April.
- Noy, Ilan, 2009.
"The macroeconomic consequences of disasters,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
- Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
- Carter, Michael R. & Little, Peter D. & Mogues, Tewodaj & Negatu, Workneh, 2007. "Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 835-856, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13063. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.