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The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Bauernschuster

    (University of Passau)

  • Matthias Blum

    (German Medical Association)

  • Erik Hornung

    (University of Cologne)

  • Christoph Koenig

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

Abstract

How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Bauernschuster & Matthias Blum & Erik Hornung & Christoph Koenig, 2023. "The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 241, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:241
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix Kersting, 2023. "Mimicking the Opposition: Bismarck's Welfare State and the Rise of the Socialists," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 448, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. Christian Ochsner & Lukas Schmid, 2025. "Pandemics’ Backlash: The Effects of the 1918 Influenza on Health Attitudes and Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 11903, CESifo.
    3. Stefan Bauernschuster & Matthias Blum & Erik Hornung & Christoph Koenig, 2023. "How the 1918 influenza pandemic affected voting in the Weimar Republic," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 053, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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