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The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu

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  • Basco Mascaro, Sergi
  • Domènech Feliu, Jordi
  • Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variationin "excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related "excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and shortlived.The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from none to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases inmortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Basco Mascaro, Sergi & Domènech Feliu, Jordi & Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon, 2020. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 30465, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:30465
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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