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Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

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  • Sergio Correia
  • Stephan Luck
  • Emil Verner

Abstract

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

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  • Sergio Correia & Stephan Luck & Emil Verner, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," Papers 2207.11636, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2207.11636
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ali Mofleh ALSHAHRANI, 2022. "Cost–Benefit Analysis of Interventions to Mitigate the Monkeypox Virus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    4. Moshe Yanovskiy & Yehoshua Socol, 2022. "Are Lockdowns Effective in Managing Pandemics?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    6. Breitenbach, Marthinus C & Ngobeni, Victor & Aye, Goodness C, 2020. "Global Healthcare Resource Efficiency in the Management of COVID-19 Death and Infection Prevalence Rates," MPRA Paper 104814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Claudio Thieme & Víctor Giménez & Diego Prior & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "Health vs. Wealth: A Cross-country Analysis of Managerial Effectiveness of the COVID-19," Working Papers 2023/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    8. Chen, Zhuo & Li, Pengfei & Liao, Li & Liu, Lu & Wang, Zhengwei, 2024. "Assessing and addressing the coronavirus-induced economic crisis: Evidence from 1.5 billion sales invoices," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Das, Satadru & Ghosh, Saurabh & Mazumder, Debojyoti & Tushavera, Jitendra, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 shock on a segmented labour market: Analysis using a unique panel dataset," MPRA Paper 116780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Stefan Bauernschuster & Matthias Blum & Erik Hornung & Christoph Koenig, 2023. "How the 1918 influenza pandemic affected voting in the Weimar Republic," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 053, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    13. Park, Dojoon & Kang, Yong Joo & Eom, Young Ho, 2024. "Asset pricing tests for pandemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1314-1334.
    14. Del Angel, Marco & Fohlin, Caroline & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2023. "Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Tiago F. A. Matos & João C. A. Teixeira & Tiago M. Dutra, 2023. "The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID‐19 pandemic shock," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 794-830, December.

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