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Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919

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  • Barro, Robert J.

Abstract

A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to overall flu-related excess death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. These findings differ from those associated with COVID-19 in the sense that facemask mandates and usage seem to reduce COVID-related cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001
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    1. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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