IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/jhisae/0200.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Herby, Jonas

    (Centre for Political Studies)

  • Jonung, Lars

    (Lund University)

  • Hanke, Steve

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

Abstract

This systematic review and meta-analysis are designed to determine whether there is empirical evidence to support the belief that “lockdowns” reduce COVID-19 mortality. Lockdowns are defined as the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). NPIs are any government mandate that directly restrict peoples’ possibilities, such as policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel. This study employed a systematic search and screening procedure in which 18,590 studies are identified that could potentially address the belief posed. After three levels of screening, 34 studies ultimately qualified. Of those 34 eligible studies, 24 qualified for inclusion in the meta-analysis. They were separated into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies. An analysis of each of these three groups support the conclusion that lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average. SIPOs were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average. Specific NPI studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality. While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality," Studies in Applied Economics 200, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2010. "Picture This: A Simple Graph That Reveals Much Ado About Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 170-191, February.
    2. Guihua Wang, 2022. "Stay at home to stay safe: Effectiveness of stay‐at‐home orders in containing the COVID‐19 pandemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(5), pages 2289-2305, May.
    3. John Gibson, 2022. "Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 17-28, January.
    4. Mueller-Langer, Frank & Fecher, Benedikt & Harhoff, Dietmar & Wagner, Gert G., 2019. "Replication studies in economics—How many and which papers are chosen for replication, and why?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 62-83.
    5. Andrew Atkeson, 2021. "A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom," Staff Report 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 13314, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Blanco,Fernando Heber & Emrullahu,Drilona & Soto,Raimundo, 2020. "Do Coronavirus Containment Measures Work ? Worldwide Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9490, The World Bank.
    8. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "When Do Shelter‐In‐Place Orders Fight Covid‐19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States And Adoption Time," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 29-52, January.
    9. Ainoa Aparicio & Shoshana Grossbard, 2021. "Are COVID fatalities in the US higher than in the EU, and if so, why?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 307-326, June.
    10. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Does re-opening schools contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence from staggered summer breaks in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Patricio Goldstein & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19," CID Working Papers 391, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Hideki Toya & Mark Skidmore, 2021. "A Cross-Country Analysis of the Determinants of Covid-19 Fatalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9028, CESifo.
    13. Dion Bongaerts & Francesco Mazzola & Wolf Wagner, 2021. "Closed for business: The mortality impact of business closures during the Covid-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, May.
    14. William Clyde & Andreas Kakolyris & Georgios Koimisis, 2021. "A Study of the Effectiveness of Governmental Strategies for Managing Mortality from COVID-19," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 487-505, October.
    15. Hansen, Niels-Jakob H. & Mano, Rui C., 2023. "Mask mandates save lives," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2024. "Four Stylized Facts About Covid‐19," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 3-42, February.
    17. Sammy Zahran & Levi Altringer & Ashok Prasad, 2022. "The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Laliotis, Ioannis & Minos, Dimitrios, 2020. "Spreading the disease: The role of culture," SocArXiv z4ndc, Center for Open Science.
    19. Ingo E. Isphording & Marc Lipfert & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Does Re-Opening Schools Contribute to the Spread of Sars-Cov-2? Evidence From Staggered Summer Breaks in Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_263, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    20. James Sears & J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & Vasco Villas-Boas, 2023. "Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 71-95.
    21. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization," NBER Working Papers 27621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2021_01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    23. Dan Goldhaber & Thomas J. Kane & Andrew McEachin & Emily Morton & Tyler Patterson & Douglas O. Staiger, 2022. "The Consequences of Remote and Hybrid Instruction During the Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    25. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2020. "Pandemic, Shutdown and Consumer Spending: Lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19," Papers 2005.04630, arXiv.org.
    26. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Andrew J Hale & Beatriz Kira & Saptarshi Majumdar & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Devi Sridhar & Robin N Thompson & Samuel Webster & Yuxi Zhang, 2021. "Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    27. Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
    28. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    29. Shenoy, Ajay & Sharma, Bhavyaa & Xu, Guanghong & Kapoor, Rolly & Rho, Haedong Aiden & Sangha, Kinpritma, 2022. "God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    30. Adnan M S Fakir & Tushar Bharati, 2021. "Pandemic catch-22: The role of mobility restrictions and institutional inequalities in halting the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, June.
    31. Clare Halloran & Rebecca Jack & James C. Okun & Emily Oster, 2021. "Pandemic Schooling Mode and Student Test Scores: Evidence from US States," NBER Working Papers 29497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Some Links
      by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek on 2022-11-16 16:00:57
    2. 3 examples of post-publication review (ecology, the underground economy, and “lockdowns”)
      by ? in Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science on 2022-07-05 13:34:22

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dmitrii Trubnikov, 2022. "Rethinking the pandemic narrative: An ordoliberal perspective," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 327-343, June.
    2. López-Mendoza, Héctor & González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Edgardo Zablotsky, 2022. "Postales sobre educación en la Argentina, 2022," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 843, Universidad del CEMA.
    4. Moshe Yanovskiy & Yehoshua Socol, 2022. "Are Lockdowns Effective in Managing Pandemics?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Badruddoza, Syed & Amin, Modhurima Dey, 2023. "Impacts of Teaching Modality on U.S. COVID-19 Spread in Fall 2020 Semester," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(01), January.
    6. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    7. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    8. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "When houses of worship go empty: The effects of state restrictions on well-being among religious adherents," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Paul, Jomon A. & Wang, Xinfang & Bagchi, Aniruddha, 2024. "Lives or livelihoods: A configurational perspective of COVID-19 policies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Felix Roth & Lars Jonung & Aisada Most, 2024. "COVID-19 and public support for the Euro," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 61-86, February.
    11. Lizheng Ma & Congzhi Zhang & Kai Lisa Lo & Xiangyan Meng, 2023. "Can Stringent Government Initiatives Lead to Global Economic Recovery Rapidly during the COVID-19 Epidemic?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    2. Brian Cepparulo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on economic activity: Evidence from the Italian regional system," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 15, Stata Users Group.
    3. Charles Courtemanche & Joseph Garuccio & Anh Le & Joshua Pinkston & Aaron Yelowitz, 2021. "Chance elections, social distancing restrictions, and KENTUCKY’s early COVID-19 experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Cepparulo, Brian & Jump, Robert Calvert, 2022. "The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on economic activity: evidence from the Italian regional system," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 37801, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    5. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    6. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Seth M. Freedman & Daniel W. Sacks & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 30550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Daniel Goller & Stefan C. Wolter, 2021. "“Too shocked to search” The COVID-19 shutdowns’ impact on the search for apprenticeships," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Joakim A. Weill & Matthieu Stigler & Olivier Deschenes & Michael R. Springborn, 2021. "Researchers' Degrees-of-Flexibility and the Credibility of Difference-in-Differences Estimates: Evidence From the Pandemic Policy Evaluations," NBER Working Papers 29550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Martin Eichenbaum & Miguel Godinho de Matos & Francisco Lima & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2024. "Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2571-2611.
    11. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Hunt Allcott & Levi Boxell & Jacob C. Conway & Billy A. Ferguson & Matthew Gentzkow & Benjamin Goldman, 2020. "What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early US Coronavirus Pandemic?," NBER Working Papers 27965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Faina Linkov & Christopher L. Cummings & David J. Dausey, 2024. "Official risk communication for COVID-19 and beyond: can we do a better job?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 293-300, June.
    14. David J. Hebert & Michael D. Curry, 2022. "Optimal lockdowns," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 263-274, December.
    15. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Alessandro Borin, 2022. "A New Dataset for Local and National COVID-19-Related Restrictions in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 435-470, July.
    18. Weill, Joakim A. & Stigler, Matthieu & Deschenes, Olivier & Springborn, Michael R., 2021. "COVID-19 Mobility Policies Impacts: How Credible Are Difference-in-Differences Estimates?," IZA Discussion Papers 14682, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Carlos B. Carneiro & I'uri H. Ferreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Henrique F. Pires & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach," Papers 2009.13484, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    20. Stefanie Weinert & Anja Thronicke & Maximilian Hinse & Friedemann Schad & Harald Matthes, 2021. "School Teachers’ Self-Reported Fear and Risk Perception during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Nationwide Survey in Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-14, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; lockdown; non-pharmaceutical interventions; mortality; systematic review; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Steve H. Hanke (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaejhus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.