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Does Re-Opening Schools Contribute to the Spread of Sars-Cov-2? Evidence From Staggered Summer Breaks in Germany

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  • Ingo E. Isphording

  • Marc Lipfert
  • Nico Pestel

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the end of school summer breaks on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany. The staggered timing of summer breaks across federal states allows us to implement an event study design. We base our analysis on official daily counts of confirmed coronavirus infections by age groups across all 401 German counties. We consider an event window of two weeks before and four weeks after the end of summer breaks. We do not find evidence of a positive effect of school re-openings on case numbers. For individuals aged between 5-59 years, which comprise school-aged children and their parents, our preferred specification indicates that the end of summer breaks had a negative but insignificant effect on the number of new confirmed cases. Our results are not explained by changes in mobility patterns around school re-openings arising from travel returnees. Analyses of Google Trends data suggest that behavioral changes of parents may have contributed to contain larger outbreaks after school re-openings. We conclude that school re-openings in Germany under strict hygiene measures combined with quarantine and containment measures have not increased the number of newly confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingo E. Isphording & Marc Lipfert & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Does Re-Opening Schools Contribute to the Spread of Sars-Cov-2? Evidence From Staggered Summer Breaks in Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_263, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_263
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefanie Weinert & Anja Thronicke & Maximilian Hinse & Friedemann Schad & Harald Matthes, 2021. "School Teachers’ Self-Reported Fear and Risk Perception during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Nationwide Survey in Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Malte Sandner & Alexander Patzina & Silke Anger & Sarah Bernhard & Hans Dietrich, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic, well-being, and transitions to post-secondary education," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-483, June.
    5. Kilenthong, Weerachart T. & Boonsanong, Khanista & Duangchaiyoosook, Sartja & Jantorn, Wasinee & Khruapradit, Varunee, 2023. "Learning losses from school closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic for Thai kindergartners," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Marc Diederichs & Reyn van Ewijk & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2022. "Schools under mandatory testing can mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(26), pages 2201724119-, June.
    7. Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2021. "The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 14796, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Samuel de Haas & Georg Goetz & Sven Heim, 2021. "Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related night curfews: Empirical evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202118, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Helen Rahlff & Ulf Rinne & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2025. "COVID-19, school closures and (cyber)bullying in Germany," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 852-865, November.
    10. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Isphording, Ingo E. & Diederichs, Marc & van Ewijk, Reyn & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Der eindämmende Effekt von Schulen auf die Verbreitung von SARS-CoV-2," IZA Standpunkte 101, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Natalia Danzer & Sebastian Garcia-Torres & Max Friedrich Steinhardt & Luca Stella, 2024. "Women in political power and school closure during COVID times," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(120), pages 765-810.
    13. Alvin Christian & Brian Jacob & John D. Singleton, 2022. "Assessing School District Decision-Making: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    15. Jesús M. Carro & Pedro Gallardo, 2024. "Effect of class size on student achievement in the COVID‐19 “new normal”," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 303-318, April.
    16. Rufrancos, Héctor & Moro, Mirko & Moore, Eva, 2021. "The impact of University reopenings on COVID-19 cases in Scotland," GLO Discussion Paper Series 868, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Jonas Herby & Lars Jonung & Steve Hanke, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality," Studies in Applied Economics 200, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    18. Apel, Johannes & Rohde, Niklas & Marcus, Jan, 2023. "The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Bravata, Dena & Cantor, Jonathan & Sood, Neeraj & Whaley, Christopher, 2025. "Back to school: The effect of school visits during COVID-19 on COVID-19 outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    21. Amodio, Emanuele & Battisti, Michele & Kourtellos, Andros & Maggio, Giuseppe & Maida, Carmelo Massimo, 2022. "Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: Evidence from geolocalized microdata," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. Fischer, Kai, 2022. "Alcohol prohibition and pricing at the pump," DICE Discussion Papers 386, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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