IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13190.html

When Do Shelter-In-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity across States and Adoption Time

Author

Listed:
  • Dave, Dhaval M.

    (Bentley University)

  • Friedson, Andrew I.

    (University of Colorado Denver)

  • Matsuzawa, Kyutaro

    (San Diego State University)

  • Sabia, Joseph J.

    (San Diego State University)

Abstract

Shelter in place orders (SIPOs) require residents to remain home for all but essential activities such as purchasing food or medicine, caring for others, exercise, or traveling for employment deemed essential. Between March 19 and April 20, 2020, 40 states and the District of Columbia adopted SIPOs. This study explores the impact of SIPOs on health, with particular attention to heterogeneity in their impacts. First, using daily state-level social distancing data from SafeGraph and a difference-in-differences approach, we document that adoption of a SIPO was associated with a 5 to 10 percent increase in the rate at which state residents remained in their homes full-time. Then, using daily state-level coronavirus case data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we find that approximately three weeks following the adoption of a SIPO, cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by 44 percent. Event-study analyses confirm common COVID-19 case trends in the week prior to SIPO adoption and show that SIPO-induced case reductions grew larger over time. However, this average effect masks important heterogeneity across states — early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs. Finally, we find that statewide SIPOs were associated with a reduction in coronavirus-related deaths, but estimated mortality effects were imprecisely estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "When Do Shelter-In-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity across States and Adoption Time," IZA Discussion Papers 13190, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13190.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    2. Lee Jin Young & Solon Gary, 2011. "The Fragility of Estimated Effects of Unilateral Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, August.
    3. James Sears & J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & Vasco Villas-Boas, 2023. "Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 71-95.
    4. Friedson, Andrew I. & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J. & Dave, Dhaval M., 2020. "Did California's Shelter-In-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13160, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    6. Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2017. "The pros and cons of sick pay schemes: Testing for contagious presenteeism and noncontagious absenteeism behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 14-33.
    7. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    8. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    9. Stefan Pichler & Katherine Wen & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2021. "Positive Health Externalities of Mandating Paid Sick Leave," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 715-743, June.
    10. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2020. "Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-In-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 13262, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Elisabetta Calabresi, 2024. "“Don’t Leave Me Alone†: Unilateral Divorce and Intimate Partner Violence," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    3. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    4. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Alberto Ortega & Ioana Popovici & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2023. "Does Paid Sick Leave Facilitate Reproductive Choice?," NBER Working Papers 31801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Szabó, Andrea & Ujhelyi, Gergely, 2024. "National parks and economic development," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Germain Gauthier, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Models for Policy Evaluation During Pandemics," Papers 2106.10949, arXiv.org.
    7. Michelle M. Miller, 2022. "The impact of paid sick leave laws on consumer and business bankruptcies," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 844-896, December.
    8. Sumedha Gupta & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Christopher J. Ruhm & Kosali I. Simon, 2025. "The Impact of State Paid Sick Leave Mandates on Medicaid-financed Prescription Medications," NBER Working Papers 34485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    10. D. Mark Anderson & Yang Liang & Joseph J. Sabia, 2024. "Mandatory seatbelt laws and traffic fatalities: A reassessment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 513-521, April.
    11. Zou, Ganna & Zhang, Shengbo & Gan, Xingqiong & Cheng, Hua, 2025. "How government green procurement incentivises corporate green innovation? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1605-1626.
    12. He, Chengxu & Liang, Yinhe & Wang, Gefei, 2025. "Reshaping Migrant-Native Health Disparities: evidence from the hukou reform in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    13. William Casey Boland, 2025. "Accountability at the Expense of Equity? Investigating Intended and Unintended Consequences of Performance Based-Funding in Hispanic-Serving Institutions," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(4), pages 1-35, June.
    14. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2020. "Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments," Papers 2008.00602, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    15. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2023. "The Impact of Violence during the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 16359, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    17. Li, Tongxia & Ang, Tze Chuan ‘Chewie’ & Lu, Chun, 2023. "Employment protection and the provision of trade credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Meinhofer, Angélica & Witman, Allison E. & Hinde, Jesse M. & Simon, Kosali, 2021. "Marijuana liberalization policies and perinatal health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Uttara Ananthakrishnan & Davide Proserpio & Siddhartha Sharma, 2023. "I Hear You: Does Quality Improve with Customer Voice?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(6), pages 1143-1161, November.
    20. Garrett Anstreicher & Jason Fletcher & Owen Thompson, 2022. "The Long Run Impacts of Court-Ordered Desegregation," NBER Working Papers 29926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.