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Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?

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  • James Sears
  • J. Miguel Villas-Boas
  • Sofia Berto Villas-Boas
  • Vasco Villas-Boas

Abstract

The recent spread of COVID-19 across the United States led to concerted efforts by states to “flatten the curve” through the adoption of stay-at-home mandates that encouraged individuals to reduce travel and maintain social distance. Combining data on changes in travel activity and human encounter rates with state policy adoption timing, we first characterize the overall changes in mobility patterns that accompanied the spread of COVID-19. We find evidence of dramatic nationwide declines in mobility and human encounters prior to adoption of any statewide mandates. Then, using difference-in-differences along with weighted and unweighted event study methods, we isolate the portion of those reductions directly attributable to statewide mandates. Once states adopt a mandate, we estimate further mandate-induced declines of between 2.1 and 7.0 percentage points relative to pre-COVID-19 baseline levels. While residents of mandate states soon returned to prior business visitation patterns, the impacts on distances traveled and human encounter rates persisted throughout the observed mandate periods. Our estimates of early mobility reductions and the responses to statewide stay-at-home policies convey important policy implications for the persistence of mobility behavior changes and states’ future reopenings.

Suggested Citation

  • James Sears & J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & Vasco Villas-Boas, 2023. "Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 71-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:amjhec:doi:10.1086/721705
    DOI: 10.1086/721705
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    Cited by:

    1. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. De Schryder, Selien & Koutounidis, Nikolaos & Schoors, Koen & Weytjens, Johannes, 2025. "Assessing the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on consumption using bank transactions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Youngho Kim, 2024. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," Economics Series Working Papers 1054, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Faina Linkov & Christopher L. Cummings & David J. Dausey, 2024. "Official risk communication for COVID-19 and beyond: can we do a better job?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 293-300, June.
    5. Hunt Allcott & Levi Boxell & Jacob Conway & Billy Ferguson & Matthew Gentzkow & Benny Goldman, 2025. "What explains temporal and geographic variation in the early US COVID-19 pandemic?," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 45-85, February.

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