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Did California's Shelter-In-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Friedson, Andrew I.

    (University of Colorado Denver)

  • McNichols, Drew

    (San Diego State University)

  • Sabia, Joseph J.

    (San Diego State University)

  • Dave, Dhaval M.

    (Bentley University)

Abstract

On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents of the state of California to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This shelter-in-place order (SIPO), the first such statewide order issued in the United States, was designed to reduce COVID-19 cases and mortality. While the White House Task Force on the Coronavirus has credited the State of California for taking early action to prevent a statewide COVID-19 outbreak, no study has examined the impact of California's SIPO. Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,661 fewer COVID-19 deaths during the first four weeks following its enactment. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 400 job losses per life saved during this short-run post-treatment period.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedson, Andrew I. & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J. & Dave, Dhaval M., 2020. "Did California's Shelter-In-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13160, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus; COVID-19; synthetic control; shelter in place order;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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