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A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom

Author

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  • Andrew Atkeson

Abstract

I present a behavioral epidemiological model of the evolution of the COVID epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom over the past 12 months. The model includes the introduction of a new, more contagious variant in the UK in early fall and the US in mid December. The model is behavioral in that activity, and thus transmission, responds endogenously to the daily death rate. I show that with only seasonal variation in the transmission rate and pandemic fatigue modeled as a one-time reduction in the semi-elasticity of the transmission rate to the daily death rate late in the year, the model can reproduce the evolution of daily and cumulative COVID deaths in the both countries from Feb 15, 2020 to the present remarkably well. I find that most of the end-of-year surge in deaths in both the US and the UK was generated by pandemic fatigue and not the new variant of the virus. I then generate forecasts for the evolution of the epidemic over the next two years with continuing seasonality, pandemic fatigue, and spread of the new variant.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Atkeson, 2021. "A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom," Staff Report 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89807
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.619
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2023. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 474-508, June.
    2. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Carmen Camacho & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2023. "Antivax and inequality," Working Papers hal-03693126, HAL.
    5. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," TSE Working Papers 21-1206, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2022.
    6. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galiani, Sebastian, 2022. "Pandemic economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 269-275.
    8. Shomak Chakrabarti & Ilia Krasikov & Rohit Lamba, 2022. "Behavioral epidemiology: An economic model to evaluate optimal policy in the midst of a pandemic," Papers 2202.04174, arXiv.org.
    9. James Broughel & Michael Kotrous, 2021. "The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, June.
    10. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2022. "Lockdowns as options," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 407, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Wilson, Matthew S., 2023. "Social contact in a pandemic: Rationality vs. heuristics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 159-177.
    14. Glenn L. Furton, 2023. "The pox of politics: Troesken’s tradeoff reexamined," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 195(1), pages 169-191, April.
    15. Kapička, Marek & Rupert, Peter, 2022. "Labor markets during pandemics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Behavior; Epidemics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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