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Lockdowns as options

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  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

The irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of pandemics given a stochastic vaccine arrival/effectiveness process.

Suggested Citation

  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2022. "Lockdowns as options," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:214:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522000829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Atkeson, 2021. "A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom," NBER Working Papers 28434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Moll, Benjamin & Kaplan, Greg & Violante, Giovanni, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 15256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Collard, Fabrice & Hellwig, Christian & Assenza, Tiziana & Kankanamge, Sumudu & Dupaigne, Martial & Werquin, Nicolas & Feve, Patrick, 2020. "The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14731, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Park, Hojeong, 2016. "A real option analysis for stochastic disease control and vaccine stockpile policy: An application to H1N1 in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 187-194.
    7. Thomas J. Kniesner & W. Kip Viscusi & Christopher Woock & James P. Ziliak, 2012. "The Value of a Statistical Life: Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 74-87, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic dynamics; Stochastic vaccination arrival information; Irreversibility; Lockdowns; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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