IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cid/wpfacu/421.html

An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of Covid-19 NPIs in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Adolfo Rubinstein
  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati
  • Alejandro López Osornio
  • Federico Filippini
  • Adrian Santoro
  • Cintia Cejas
  • Ariel Bardach
  • Alfredo Palacios
  • Fernando Argento
  • Jamile Balivian
  • Federico Augustovski
  • Andrés Pichón Riviere

Abstract

We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death-curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Adolfo Rubinstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alejandro López Osornio & Federico Filippini & Adrian Santoro & Cintia Cejas & Ariel Bardach & Alfredo Palacios & Fernando Argento & Jamile Balivian & Federic, 2022. "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of Covid-19 NPIs in Argentina," CID Working Papers 421, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2022-11-cid-wp-421-epi-econ-model.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    2. Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," School of Government Working Papers 20210101, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    3. repec:udt:wpecon:wp_gob_2021_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:rza:wpaper:826 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodoros Evgeniou & Mathilde Fekom & Anton Ovchinnikov & Raphaël Porcher & Camille Pouchol & Nicolas Vayatis, 2023. "Pandemic lockdown, isolation, and exit policies based on machine learning predictions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1307-1322, May.
    2. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    3. Upasak Das & Rupayan Pal & Udayan Rathore & Bibhas Saha, 2023. "Rein in pandemic by pricing vaccine: Does social trust matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    6. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    7. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of mobility on COVID-19 in the US: targeted lockdowns based on income and poverty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(1), pages 18-36, April.
    8. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Luca Gori & Piero Manfredi & Simone Marsiglio & Mauro Sodini, 2023. "A parsimonious model of optimal social distancing and vaccination during an outbreak," Discussion Papers 2023/292, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Stankov, Petar, 2025. "Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 358-370.
    11. Torsten Heinrich, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," Chemnitz Economic Papers 045, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    12. Chen, Xiaowei & Chong, Wing Fung & Feng, Runhuan & Zhang, Linfeng, 2021. "Pandemic risk management: Resources contingency planning and allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 359-383.
    13. Dong, Zhanyu & Cai, Jiayi & Li, Xuchao & Luan, Mengna, 2025. "Firm-level impacts and recovery dynamics following a public health crisis: Lessons from China’s SARS experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Mart n Gonzales-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt, 2023. "Optimal Epidemic Control," Diskussionsschriften dp2311, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    15. Loiacono, Luisa & Puglisi, Riccardo & Rizzo, Leonzio & Secomandi, Riccardo, 2022. "Pandemic knowledge and regulation effectiveness: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 768-783.
    16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Welfare costs of COVID‐19: Evidence from US counties," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 826-848, September.
    17. Bouveret, Géraldine & Mandel, Antoine, 2021. "Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epidemics on networks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Lazebnik, Teddy & Shami, Labib & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana, 2023. "Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    20. Biswas, Debajyoti & Alfandari, Laurent, 2022. "Designing an optimal sequence of non‐pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1372-1391.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chuck McKenney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.