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Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Hale
  • Noam Angrist
  • Andrew J Hale
  • Beatriz Kira
  • Saptarshi Majumdar
  • Anna Petherick
  • Toby Phillips
  • Devi Sridhar
  • Robin N Thompson
  • Samuel Webster
  • Yuxi Zhang

Abstract

We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Andrew J Hale & Beatriz Kira & Saptarshi Majumdar & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Devi Sridhar & Robin N Thompson & Samuel Webster & Yuxi Zhang, 2021. "Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0253116
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Salvatore Greco & Alessio Ishizaka & Menelaos Tasiou & Gianpiero Torrisi, 2019. "On the Methodological Framework of Composite Indices: A Review of the Issues of Weighting, Aggregation, and Robustness," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 61-94, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiegel, Matthew, 2025. "Why Covid-19 restrictions lose effectiveness over time," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1347-1392.
    2. Dagorn, Etienne & Dattilo, Martina & Pourieux, Matthieu, 2024. "The role of populations’ behavioral traits in policy-making during a global crisis: Worldwide evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Martine J. Sealy & Fons van der Lucht & Barbara C. van Munster & Wim P. Krijnen & Hans Hobbelen & Hans A. Barf & Evelyn J. Finnema & Harriët Jager-Wittenaar, 2022. "Frailty among Older People during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Melpakkam Pradeep & Karthik Raman, 2023. "COWAVE: A labelled COVID-19 wave dataset for building predictive models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(7), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
    6. Jonas Herby & Lars Jonung & Steve H. Hanke, 2025. "Were COVID-19 lockdowns worth it? A meta-analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 203(3), pages 337-367, June.
    7. Gowokani Chijere Chirwa & Joe Maganga Zonda & Samantha Soyiyo Mosiwa & Jacob Mazalale, 2023. "Effect of government intervention in relation to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Malawi," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    8. Jonas Herby & Lars Jonung & Steve Hanke, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality," Studies in Applied Economics 200, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    9. Li, Sabrina L. & Emch, Michael, 2025. "A pyramid of human ecology of disease for pandemic preparedness," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    10. Voruganti Srinivas & Prashant Salwan & Namrta Sharma & Meghna Sabharwal, 2025. "COVID‐19 management in India: What worked and what didn't?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2), pages 173-180, May.
    11. Andrés Ayala & Pablo Villalobos Dintrans & Felipe Elorrieta & Claudio Castillo & Claudio Vargas & Matilde Maddaleno, 2021. "Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-8, October.

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