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Mask Mandates Save Lives

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
  • Rui Mano

Abstract

We quantify the effect of mask mandates in the United States. Our regression discontinuity design exploits county-level variation in COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths across the border between states with and without mandates. We find a significant and substantial effect—mask mandates reduced new weekly COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by 55, 11 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants on average. Crucially, we find that the effect of mask mandates depends on the attitudes toward mask wearing at the county level, with larger effects in counties more positively inclined towards mask wearing. Our results imply that mandates saved 87,000 lives through December 19, 2020, while a nationwide mandate could have saved 58,000 additional lives. These large effects suggest that mask mandates are a crucial tool to counter pandemics, particularly if accepted widely by the population. Our results are thus also relevant for countries who will not be able to immunize large swaths of their population in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Rui Mano, 2021. "Mask Mandates Save Lives," IMF Working Papers 2021/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/205
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiaming Soh & Myrto Oikonomou & Carlo Pizzinelli & Ippei Shibata & Marina M. Tavares, 2025. "Did the Covid-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the USA? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 316-337, March.
    2. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    3. Eric Cardella & Briggs Depew & Ryan B. Williams, 2024. "Behavioral responses of mandatory masking within social interactions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 263-285, October.
    4. Gaggero, Alessio & Mesa-Pedrazas, Ángela & Fernández-Pérez, Ángel, 2024. "Shutting down to save lives: A regression discontinuity analysis of non-essential business closure," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. James Hurley & Daniel Walker, 2021. "Did the Covid-19 local lockdowns reduce business activity? Evidence from UK SMEs," Bank of England working papers 943, Bank of England.
    6. Jonas Herby & Lars Jonung & Steve Hanke, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality," Studies in Applied Economics 200, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    7. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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