IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9490.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Coronavirus Containment Measures Work ? Worldwide Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Blanco,Fernando Heber
  • Emrullahu,Drilona
  • Soto,Raimundo

Abstract

Using a daily data base covering 158 countries during January to August 2020, this paper assesses the effectiveness of coronavirus containment measures in reducing contagion and death rates. To estimate the effectiveness of different containment measures, the paper uses a methodological approach that takes into consideration the persistence in the dynamics between coronavirus containment measures and contagion/death rates, countries’ idiosyncratic characteristics, and the endogeneity of the containment measures. To obtain efficient estimates of the effect of coronavirus containment measures on contagion and death rates, a dynamic panel-data technique is used, complemented by efficient instruments for the decision of adopting coronavirus containment measures. The results show that countries with better health systems, higher temperatures, and more democratic regimes tended to delay the adoption of coronavirus containment measures. The results also detect demonstration effects as the early adoption of coronavirus containment measures in Western Europe led other countries to accelerate their adoption. Using predictions from the estimated model, it is possible to benchmark the timing of adoption of coronavirus containment measures and assess whether their adoption was timely or not and if they were lifted prematurely or not. The findings of this exercise show that countries with timely adopted coronavirus containment measures restricted activities, meanwhile they lagged in the adoption of measures restricting individual liberties. The evidence indicates that most countries resisted the urge to lift restrictions in advance, once they have been in place: over 60 percent of the countries have reacted as predicted by our econometric models, maintaining coronavirus containment measures in place until contagion rates receded. Nevertheless, around one-quarter of the countries lifted their restrictions one month or more ahead of what the worldwide evidence would have suggested, in particular by removing lockdowns and re-opening workplaces. Finally, the results show that coronavirus containment measures have been effective in reducing contagion and death rates, but there are differences in the effectiveness among them, and restrictions on activities have been more effective than restrictions on personal liberties.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco,Fernando Heber & Emrullahu,Drilona & Soto,Raimundo, 2020. "Do Coronavirus Containment Measures Work ? Worldwide Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9490, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262351607455364773/pdf/Do-Coronavirus-Containment-Measures-Work-Worldwide-Evidence.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    2. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    3. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    5. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Turner & Balázs Égert & Yvan Guillemette & Jarmila Botev, 2021. "The tortoise and the hare: The race between vaccine rollout and new COVID variants," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1672, OECD Publishing.
    2. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farnè, Matteo & Vouldis, Angelos, 2024. "Do retail-oriented banks have less non-performing loans?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Oliver Bischoff & Achim Buchwald, 2018. "Horizontal and Vertical Firm Networks, Corporate Performance and Product Market Competition," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-45, March.
    4. Syed Waqar Akbar & Ajid Ur Rehman & Imran Arshad & Waseem Abbas Shaheen, 2024. "From Theory to Practice: Examining the True Impact of Institutional Quality on Innovation Commercialization," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(1), pages 8-21.
    5. Martin Popp, 2023. "How elastic is labor demand? A meta-analysis for the German labor market," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Ghanem Darine, 2012. "Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Performance: Evidence from MENA Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, August.
    7. Ilona Babenko & Benjamin Bennett & John M Bizjak & Jeffrey L Coles & Jason J Sandvik, 2023. "Clawback Provisions and Firm Risk," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 191-239.
    8. Tadesse WODAJO, Tadesse & Dawit SENBET, Dawit, 2013. "Distributions Of Public And Private Manufacturing Firms And Determinants Of Productivity In Ethiopia," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1).
    9. Omar Galárraga & David S. Salkever & Judith A. Cook & Stephen J. Gange, 2010. "An instrumental variables evaluation of the effect of antidepressant use on employment among HIV‐infected women using antiretroviral therapy in the United States: 1996–2004," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 173-188, February.
    10. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    11. Francesca Cornelli & Zbigniew Kominek & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2013. "Monitoring Managers: Does It Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 431-481, April.
    12. Christian EBEKE & Hélène EHRHART, 2011. "Does VAT reduce the instability of tax revenues?," Working Papers 201124, CERDI.
    13. Adams, Renée & Almeida, Heitor & Ferreira, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding the relationship between founder-CEOs and firm performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 136-150, January.
    14. Cecilia Bermúdez & Carlos Dabús, 2015. "Let it float: new empirical evidence on de facto exchange rate regimes and growth in Latin America," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 32(65), pages 3-18, july-dece.
    15. Omesh Kini & Shehzad Mian & Michael Rebello & Anand Venkateswaran, 2009. "On the Structure of Analyst Research Portfolios and Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 867-909, September.
    16. Ricardo Bebczuk & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "Revisiting the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: An institutional sector view," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0, pages 69-104, January-D.
    17. Jing Peng, 2023. "Identification of Causal Mechanisms from Randomized Experiments: A Framework for Endogenous Mediation Analysis," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 67-84, March.
    18. Sargis Karavardanyan, 2024. "Economic Development, Inequality and Dynamics of Social Movements in the United States: Theory and Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 421-474, June.
    19. Desrieux, Claudine & Chong, Eshien & Saussier, Stéphane, 2013. "Putting all one's eggs in one basket: Relational contracts and the management of local public services," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 167-186.
    20. MieczysEaw Kowerski, 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the dividend target payout ratio. The evidence from Hydrotor SA," Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie / The Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow Research Papers Collection, Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow, vol. 51(3), pages 15-28, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.