IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2307.09035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?

Author

Listed:
  • Shun-Yang Lee
  • Julian Runge
  • Daniel Yoo
  • Yakov Bart
  • Anett Gyurak
  • J. W. Schneider

Abstract

Research has investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business performance and survival, indicating particularly adverse effects for small and midsize businesses (SMBs). Yet only limited work has examined whether and how online advertising technology may have helped shape these outcomes, particularly for SMBs. The aim of this study is to address this gap. By constructing and analyzing a novel data set of more than 60,000 businesses in 49 countries, we examine the impact of government lockdowns on business survival. Using discrete-time survival models with instrumental variables and staggered difference-in-differences estimators, we find that government lockdowns increased the likelihood of SMB closure around the world but that use of online advertising technology attenuates this adverse effect. The findings show heterogeneity in country, industry, and business size, which we discuss and is consistent with theoretical expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2307.09035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.09035
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    2. Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Online Display Advertising: Targeting and Obtrusiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 389-404, 05-06.
    3. Paulo Albuquerque & Bart J. Bronnenberg, 2012. "Measuring the Impact of Negative Demand Shocks on Car Dealer Networks," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 4-23, January.
    4. Georgij Alekseev & Safaa Amer & Manasa Gopal & Theresa Kuchler & J. W. Schneider & Johannes Stroebel & Nils Wernerfelt, 2023. "The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 7-24, January.
    5. Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Rejoinder--Implications of "Online Display Advertising: Targeting and Obtrusiveness"," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 413-415, 05-06.
    6. Jason Abrevaya & Jerry A. Hausman & Shakeeb Khan, 2010. "Testing for Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Model With Endogenous Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 2043-2061, November.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Robert P. Bartlett III & Adair Morse, 2020. "Small Business Survival Capabilities and Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Oakland," NBER Working Papers 27629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 239-268;316.
    11. Greenwald, Anthony G & Leavitt, Clark, 1984. "Audience Involvement in Advertising: Four Levels," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 11(1), pages 581-592, June.
    12. Alexander Bleier & Maik Eisenbeiss, 2015. "Personalized Online Advertising Effectiveness: The Interplay of What, When, and Where," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(5), pages 669-688, September.
    13. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    14. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Oliver Rutz & Randolph Bucklin, 2012. "Does banner advertising affect browsing for brands? clickstream choice model says yes, for some," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 231-257, June.
    16. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Wenli Li & Michelle J. White & Ning Zhu, 2011. "Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Defaults to Rise?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 123-147, November.
    18. Celsi, Richard L & Olson, Jerry C, 1988. "The Role of Involvement in Attention and Comprehension Processes," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 15(2), pages 210-224, September.
    19. James Sears & J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & Vasco Villas-Boas, 2023. "Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 71-95.
    20. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    22. Palacios-Lopez,Amparo & Newhouse,David Locke & Pape,Utz Johann & Khamis,Melanie & Weber,Michael & Prinz,Daniel, 2021. "The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9510, The World Bank.
    23. Randall Lewis & David Reiley, 2014. "Online ads and offline sales: measuring the effect of retail advertising via a controlled experiment on Yahoo!," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 235-266, September.
    24. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    25. Niket Jindal & Leigh McAlister, 2015. "The Impacts of Advertising Assets and R&D Assets on Reducing Bankruptcy Risk," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 555-572, July.
    26. Tran, Trang P. & Lin, Chien-Wei & Baalbaki, Sally & Guzmán, Francisco, 2020. "How personalized advertising affects equity of brands advertised on Facebook? A mediation mechanism," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-15.
    27. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    28. Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp & Eric (Er) Fang, 2011. "The Impact of Economic Contractions on the Effectiveness of R&D and Advertising: Evidence from U.S. Companies Spanning Three Decades," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 628-645, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niket Jindal & Leigh McAlister, 2015. "The Impacts of Advertising Assets and R&D Assets on Reducing Bankruptcy Risk," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 555-572, July.
    2. Álvarez, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio, 2023. "Distressed firms, zombie firms and zombie lending: A taxonomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2025. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 28-41, January.
    4. Bayer, Emanuel & Srinivasan, Shuba & Riedl, Edward J. & Skiera, Bernd, 2020. "The impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 789-804.
    5. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    6. Elías Albagli & Andrés Fernández & Juan Guerra-Salas & Federico Huneeus & Pablo Muñoz, 2023. "Anatomy of Firms’ Margins of Adjustment: Evidence from the COVID Pandemic," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 981, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Miller, Klaus M. & Skiera, Bernd, 2024. "Economic consequences of online tracking restrictions: Evidence from cookies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 241-264.
    8. Jan Krämer & Daniel Schnurr & Michael Wohlfarth, 2019. "Winners, Losers, and Facebook: The Role of Social Logins in the Online Advertising Ecosystem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1678-1699, April.
    9. Alam, Nurul & Gao, Junbin & Jones, Stewart, 2021. "Corporate failure prediction: An evaluation of deep learning vs discrete hazard models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    11. Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2024. "Corporate bankruptcy and banking deregulation: The effect of financial leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Hoshi, Takeo & Kawaguchi, Daiji & Ueda, Kenichi, 2023. "Zombies, again? The COVID-19 business support programs in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Min Tian & Paul R. Hoban & Neeraj Arora, 2024. "What Cookie-Based Advertising Effectiveness Fails to Measure," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 407-418, March.
    14. Peitz, Martin & Reisinger, Markus, 2014. "The Economics of Internet Media," Working Papers 14-23, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    15. Christina Uhl & Nadia Abou Nabout & Klaus Miller, 2020. "How Much Ad Viewability is Enough? The Effect of Display Ad Viewability on Advertising Effectiveness," Papers 2008.12132, arXiv.org.
    16. Takeo Hoshi & Daiji Kawaguchi & Kenichi Ueda, 2021. "The Return of the Dead? The COVID-19 Business Support Programs in Japan (Forthcoming in Journal of Banking and Finance)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-513, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    17. Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2020. "The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Chang, Bi-Juan & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "Corporate debt and cash decisions: A nonlinear panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 15-37.
    20. Randall Lewis & Dan Nguyen, 2015. "Display advertising’s competitive spillovers to consumer search," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 93-115, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2307.09035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.