IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30285.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Were Small Businesses More Likely to Permanently Close in the Pandemic?

Author

Listed:
  • Robert W. Fairlie
  • Frank M. Fossen
  • Reid L. Johnsen
  • Gentian Droboniku

Abstract

Previous estimates indicate that COVID-19 led to a large drop in the number of operating businesses operating early in the pandemic, but surprisingly little is known on whether these shutdowns turned into permanent closures and whether small businesses were disproportionately hit. This paper provides the first analysis of permanent business closures using confidential administrative firm-level panel data covering the universe of businesses filing sales taxes from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. We find large increases in closures rates in the first two quarters of 2020, but a strong reversal of this trend in the third quarter of 2020. The increase in closures rates in the first two quarters of the pandemic was substantially larger for small businesses than large businesses, but the rebound in the third quarter was also larger. The disproportionate closing of small businesses led to a sharp concentration of market share among larger businesses as indicated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index with only a partial reversal after the initial increase. The findings highlight the fragility of small businesses during a large adverse shock and the consequences for the competitiveness of markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fairlie & Frank M. Fossen & Reid L. Johnsen & Gentian Droboniku, 2022. "Were Small Businesses More Likely to Permanently Close in the Pandemic?," NBER Working Papers 30285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30285
    Note: IO LS PE PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30285.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fairlie, Robert, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Owners: The First Three Months after Social-Distancing Restrictions," MPRA Paper 113127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    3. Xindong Xue & W. Robert Reed & Robbie C.M. van Aert, 2022. "Social Capital and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 22/20, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Robert Fairlie & Frank M. Fossen, 2022. "The early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on business sales," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1853-1864, April.
    7. Daniel E. Rigobon & Thibaut Duprey & Artur Kotlicki & Philip Schnattinger & Soheil Baharian & Thomas R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real-Time Using Google Places: Proof of Concept," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    9. Robert Fairlie, 2020. "The impact of COVID‐19 on small business owners: Evidence from the first three months after widespread social‐distancing restrictions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 727-740, October.
    10. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 239-268;316.
    11. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59cr4u3mmr9pobrceptvua5g8c is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Thibaut Duprey & Daniel E. Rigobon & Philip Schnattinger & Artur Kotlicki & Soheil Baharian & T. R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places," Staff Working Papers 22-1, Bank of Canada.
    14. Bartz, Wiebke & Winkler, Adalbert, 2016. "Flexible or fragile? The growth performance of small and young businesses during the global financial crisis — Evidence from Germany," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 196-215.
    15. Dylan Balla‐Elliott & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2022. "Determinants Of Small Business Reopening Decisions After Covid Restrictions Were Lifted," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 278-317, January.
    16. Robert W. Fairlie, 2013. "Entrepreneurship, Economic Conditions, and the Great Recession," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 207-231, June.
    17. Olivia S. Kim & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "Revenue Collapses and the Consumption of Small Business Owners in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Frank M. Fossen, 2021. "Self-employment over the business cycle in the USA: a decomposition," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1837-1855, December.
    19. Catherine Buffington & Daniel Chapman & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger, 2021. "High-frequency data from the U.S. Census Bureau during the COVID-19 pandemic: small vs. new businesses," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 155-167, July.
    20. ., 2022. "Economics, property rights and economic analysis of law," Chapters, in: The Economic Analysis of Civil Law, chapter 3, pages 53-101, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brunetti, Marianna & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2023. "Is Self-Employment for Migrants? Evidence from Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1313, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Teng Ye & Jingnan Zheng & Junhui Jin & Jingyi Qiu & Wei Ai & Qiaozhu Mei, 2024. "Using Artificial Intelligence to Unlock Crowdfunding Success for Small Businesses," Papers 2407.09480, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhou, Nan & Sun, Ruohan, 2024. "Coping with the storm: The role of fintech in SME survival," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Michele Battisti & Filippo Belloc & Massimo Del Gatto, 2023. "COVID-19, Innovative Firms and Resilience," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 73, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    5. Karen Chapple & Laura Schmahmann, 2023. "Can we “Claim†the Workforce? A Labor-Focused Agenda for Economic Development in the Face of an Uncertain Future," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(1), pages 14-19, February.
    6. Karolis Matikonis & Matthew Gobey, 2024. "Small Business Property Tax Reductions and Firm Productivity," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 307-324, January.
    7. Grijalva, Diego, 2023. "Women-led firms’ performance during the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 117225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gao, Haoyu & Li, Jinxuan & Wen, Huiyu, 2023. "Bank funding costs during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    2. Charlene Marie Kalenkoski & Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the self-employed," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 741-768, February.
    3. Robert Fairlie & Frank M. Fossen, 2022. "The early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on business sales," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1853-1864, April.
    4. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Barrot, Jean-Noël & Bonelli, Maxime & Grassi, Basile & Sauvagnat, Julien, 2024. "Causal effects of closing businesses in a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Robert W. Fairlie & Frank M. Fossen, 2021. "Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 28414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dylan Balla‐Elliott & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2022. "Determinants Of Small Business Reopening Decisions After Covid Restrictions Were Lifted," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 278-317, January.
    8. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    9. Ioannis Giotopoulos & Alexander S. Kritikos & Aggelos Tsakanikas, 2023. "A lasting crisis affects R&D decisions of smaller firms: the Greek experience," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1175, August.
    10. Chen, Yutong & Debnath, Sisir & Sekhri, Sheetal & Sekhri, Vishal, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 containment lockdowns on MSMEs in India and resilience of exporting firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 320-341.
    11. Murmann, Martin, 2017. "The Growth and Human Capital Structure of New Firms over the Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168290, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Brixy, Udo & Murmann, Martin, 2016. "The growth and human capital structure of new firms over the business cycle," IAB-Discussion Paper 201642, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 55-93.
    14. Cameron J. Borgholthaus & Joshua V. White & Erik Markin & Vishal K. Gupta, 2023. "Venture creation in the aftermath of COVID-19: The impact of US governor party affiliation and discretion," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 655-674, August.
    15. Manuel Adelino & Song Ma & David Robinson, 2017. "Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 999-1038, June.
    16. Gareth Anderson & Saleem Bahaj & Matthieu Chavaz & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 851-887.
    17. Bartz, Wiebke & Winkler, Adalbert, 2016. "Flexible or fragile? The growth performance of small and young businesses during the global financial crisis — Evidence from Germany," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 196-215.
    18. Anca Elena Lungu & Ioana Andreea Bogoslov & Eduard Alexandru Stoica & Mircea Radu Georgescu, 2021. "From Decision to Survival—Shifting the Paradigm in Entrepreneurship during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    19. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    20. Silvia Muzi & Filip Jolevski & Kohei Ueda & Domenico Viganola, 2023. "Productivity and firm exit during the COVID-19 crisis: cross-country evidence," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1719-1760, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.