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The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Park, Donghyun
  • Shin, Kwanho

Abstract

In this paper we seek to make headway on the question of what recovery from Covid-19 recession may look like, focusing on the duration of the recovery - that is, how long it will take to re-attain the levels of output and employment reached at the prior business cycle peak. We start by categorizing all post-1960 recessions in advanced countries and emerging markets into supply-shock, demand-shock and both-shock induced recessions. We measure recovery duration as the number of years required to re-attain pre-recession levels of output or employment. We then rely on the earlier literature on business cycle dynamics to identify candidate variables that can help to account for variations in recovery duration following different kinds of shocks. By asking which of these variables are operative in the Covid-19 recession, we can then draw inferences about the duration of the recovery under different scenarios. A number of our statistical results point in the direction of lengthy recoveries.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5tc5s5f5, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt5tc5s5f5
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    Cited by:

    1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Krzysztof Rybiński, 2023. "Anti-pandemic restrictions, uncertainty and sentiment in seven countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Tan, Hua & Iqbal, Nadeem & Wu, Zhengzhong, 2022. "Evaluating the impact of stakeholder engagement for renewable energy sources and economic growth for CO2 emission," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 999-1007.
    3. Brownlow, Graham & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Economic history and the future of pedagogy in economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 22-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    4. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2025. "The development of local currency bond markets and uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2024. "Economic resilience: Why some countries recover more robustly than others from shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Das, Sonali & Magistretti, Giacomo & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Wingender, Philippe, 2022. "Sectoral spillovers across space and time," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Philip Barrett & Sonali Das & Giacomo Magistretti & Evgenia Pugacheva & Philippe Wingender, 2023. "Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 227-242, April.
    9. Liu, Yang & Dilanchiev, Azer & Xu, Kaifei & Hajiyeva, Aytan Merdan, 2022. "Financing SMEs and business development as new post Covid-19 economic recovery determinants," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 554-567.
    10. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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