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Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that if the Euro Area wishes to avoid financial booms and busts it will need vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will be prone to economic and financial instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 2017. "Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist," NBER Working Papers 23205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23205
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    1. Jan Babecký & Philip Du Caju & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julián Messina & Tairi Rõõm, 2010. "Downward Nominal and Real Wage Rigidity: Survey Evidence from European Firms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 884-910, December.
    2. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2016. "Core and Periphery in the European Monetary Union: Bayoumi and Eichengreen 25 years later," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 127-130.
    3. Kemmerling, Achim & Bruttel, Oliver, 2005. "New politics in German labour market policy? The implications of the recent Hartz reforms for the German welfare state," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment SP I 2005-101, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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