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Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
  • Renske Zijm

Abstract

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob de Haan & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Renske Zijm, 2022. "Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 9654, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Santi, 2025. "A high-dimensional GDP-at-risk and Inflation-at-risk for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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